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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Detroit Lions: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (3-7) at Detroit Lions (4-6) There was no early line posted for this game last week, with Matt Stafford’s status somewhat uncertain due to a thumb injury, but it’s unlikely if the oddsmakers knew that Stafford would be able to play through the injury that this line would…
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Continue reading →: Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick
Washington Football Team (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7) Both of these teams are just 3-7, but Washington has been the significantly better team this season. While the Cowboys rank 30th in point differential at -83, Washington ranks a relatively respectable 22nd at -27. On top of that, Washington has struggled…
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Continue reading →: 2020 Week 11 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week TEN +6 @ BAL High Confidence Picks NE -1.5 @ HOU Medium Confidence Picks KC -7 @ LV WAS -1 vs. CIN ATL +3.5 @ NO PHI +3 @ CLE LAR +4 @ TB JAX +10.5 vs. PIT Low Confidence Picks SEA -3 vs. ARZ CAR…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-7) Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater remains a gametime decision officially, but this spread has been posted at Detroit -2.5 in some places, a steep dropoff from Carolina -3, where this line was last week on the early line, so it definitely seems like the…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) These two teams have some big similarities. Both teams rank highly in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, as the Buccaneers rank first at +5.13%, while the Rams rank second at +4.87%. Both teams have been better defensively than on offense,…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-3) Typically the rule of thumb with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs over the past few seasons has been to pick them unless there is a good reason not to, as they are 28-16-2 ATS with Mahomes under center since his first…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (6-3) at Denver Broncos (3-6) Perhaps no team has been kept down by their quarterback play more than the Broncos. The Broncos have a strong defense, ranking 6th in schedule adjusted first down rate allowed at -3.64%, and aren’t even that bad around the quarterback on offense, but…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5) I have picked the Vikings for three straight Pick of the Weeks since their week 7 bye and they have covered in all three games. The metrics that made me think the Vikings were underrated like the field goal percentage against (100%), net…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick
New York Jets (0-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-7) In 2019, the Chargers were a solid team, but went just 5-11 because of a ridiculous 2-9 record in one score games. That type of thing tends to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, but somehow the Chargers have been…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3) Earlier this week when the Packers opened as 2.5-point underdogs, I was hoping we’d get a +3 at some point, but instead sharp action on the Packers has pushed them down to 1.5-point underdogs of even 1-point in some places. I still…
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