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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1) I can’t remember a team ever falling in my rankings as fast as the Cowboys. Going into the season, I had pretty high expectations for the Cowboys, who finished last season 6th in point differential at +113 and 5th in first down rate…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (2-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) These two teams are pretty similar. Both teams are 2-4, but have positive first down rate differentials (+0.73% for the Broncos and +1.49% for the Chargers), despite facing an above average strength of schedule. When adjusting for strength of schedule, the Chargers…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick
New York Jets (0-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) This is the biggest line of the year so far, favoring the Chiefs at home by 19.5 points. Normally I don’t like to bet on massive favorites like this and for good reason, as favorites are 17.5+ are 7-15 ATS over…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (4-2) at Chicago Bears (5-2) The Bears are 5-2, but they’re about as bad as a 5-2 team can be. While their five wins have remarkably all come by one score or less, including a pair of wins that both required nearly impossible 4th quarter comebacks, the…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-2) I had a lot of confidence in the Patriots last week. The Patriots started 2-1, easily defeating capable teams in the Raiders and Dolphins and coming up just short on the road in Seattle. Then their COVID outbreak happened, costing them starting…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3) This is another game I locked in earlier this week, back when the line was 2.5, and I am glad I did because sharp money has pushed this line up to 3 since and about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-1) The Vikings have just one win, but there is reason to believe they’ll be a lot better than that going forward, coming out of last week’s bye. In many ways, they remind me of last year’s Atlanta Falcons, who started 1-7, but…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (1-6) at Carolina Panthers (3-4) Coming into the season, I had the Falcons as the better of these two teams and on paper they have more talent, but the Panthers have actually outplayed them by a pretty significant amount. The Panthers have faced a tough schedule overall and…
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Continue reading →: 2020 Week 7 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NE -2 vs. SF High Confidence Picks DEN +8 vs. KC Medium Confidence Picks HOU +3.5 vs. GB ARZ +3.5 vs. SEA TB -4 @ LV Low Confidence Picks NYG +4.5 @ PHI CAR +7.5 @ NO LAC -7.5 vs. JAX TEN -1 vs. PIT ATL…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams: 2020 Week 7 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2) Both of these teams have impressive records, but neither team has been as good as its record suggests. The Rams have faced one of the easiest schedules in the league and have only beaten teams from the NFC East, getting lucky enough…
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