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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) People are pretty down on the Steelers here after their loss to the Browns as the public is all over the Texans. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog. If the Texans are really as likely to…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) There are reasons to take the Jaguars this week. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 43-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a loss of 1-8 points. The Jaguars almost got their first win of the season last week in a…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-5) The Cardinals are 4-1 and have one of the best records in football, but they’re a very flawed, fraudulent 4-1. The Cardinals are just +10 in point differential despite their record and they’ve needed to win the turnover battle by 8 just to do…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (2-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3) All the trends say the Dolphins are the right side here. While the Bears have to go to New England next week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win, the Dolphins go to Jacksonville, arguably the easiest place in the…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks trade WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets
Trade for Seahawks: A lot of people are saying this move was a mistake for the Seahawks because trading him now means they’re going to end up paying him 18.3 million for 27 catches and 238 snaps played (including post-season). That’s about 678K per catch and about 64.6K per snap…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5) At first glance, it looks like we’re getting line value with the Redskins. Despite the Redskins’ 1-5 record, they are 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.50% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2) I still believe in the Saints. They’re 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a rate 81.82%, while their opponents are moving them at a 78.71%, a differential of 3.11% for the Saints. Why are they 2-3…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2) The Packers have been dominant at home over the past few seasons. Aaron Rodgers is 22-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 28-4 straight up, with an absurd +448 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.00 points per game.…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2) The Falcons got off to a good start, which included a 56-14 home victory over division rival Tampa Bay week 3, which pushed them to 2-1. However, they’ve lost 3 straight now and haven’t really been playing that well. They are moving the…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1) The Giants got blown out in Philadelphia last week, but that actually bodes well for their chances of covering the spread this week, as the Giants are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 106-69 ATS in that situation since…
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