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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
New York Jets (1-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) This game has had the biggest line movement from last week to this week, as the Chiefs were just 5 point favorites in the early line last week, as opposed to 10 point favorites now. The reason for that is obvious…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (3-4-1) I’ve been high on the Saints this whole season, picking them to win the Super Bowl before the season and not really wavering from that a ton even as they got out to a 2-4 start. That 2-4 start was largely a…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-3) The Browns are at the end of one of the easiest stretches of play any team in the league has this season, as they went to 0-6 Jacksonville, hosted 0-6 Oakland, and now host 1-6 Tampa Bay. However, next week they have…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2) On the season, the Patriots are just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite their 6-2 record, as they’ve been overly reliant on a +11 turnover margin. They are moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, as opposed to 73.18%…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 9
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick Results
Against the Spread: 10-5 Straight Up: 11-4 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 3-2 Low Confidence: 2-3 No Confidence: 3-0 Upset Picks: 1-1 Against the Spread: 76-44-1 (.633) Straight Up: 82-38-1 (.683) Pick of the Week: 5-3 High Confidence: 5-6 Medium Confidence: 29-9 Low Confidence: 17-14-1…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (0-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-3) The Browns lost last week in previously 0-6 Jacksonville, doing so in embarrassing fashion, losing by the finale score of 24-6 and getting dominated in the chain game. They moved the chains at a mere 46.43% rate, as opposed to 65.71% for the…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-3-1) The Seahawks failed to even win last week as significant favorites in St. Louis and now they’re significant favorites again here in Carolina. I like their chances of bouncing back and getting back in the win column here though. For one, this is…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (4-3) at New York Jets (1-6) This line shifted from even last week to now the Jets being favored by a field goal. The primary reason for that has to be the Percy Harvin trade, as people don’t seem to realize that Harvin wasn’t doing much in Seattle…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) The Colts are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, or at least they’ve played like it through 7 games. With the exception of a 3 point home loss as 3 point home favorites to the Eagles, the Colts have covered…
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