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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1) The Bengals were embarrassed on the road in Indianapolis last week, getting blown out by the final score of 27-0. Now they’re favored to beat the 5-2 Ravens. You should put all your money on Baltimore as underdogs right? Well, that’s ignoring the…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4) The Saints have been incredible at home over the past few years. They are 32-11 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved. On top of that, they are 17-1-1 ATS at home…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (5-1) The Broncos have generally been very good at home in the Peyton Manning era, going 14-7 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more. That hasn’t been the case against these Chargers, who have covered in all 3 instances in Denver as…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons in London: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-5) in London This is technically a home game for the Falcons, but it’s a neutral site game in London. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions as either the Lions are being overrated or the Falcons are being underrated. The…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (2-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) Last week, the Vikings lost in Buffalo on a last second touchdown. However, it was still only a one point loss. I like the Vikings’ chances of actually getting the win here this week a good amount for several reasons. One, they’re…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 8
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick Results
Against the Spread: 9-6 Straight Up: 12-3 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-1 Medium Confidence: 5-0 Low Confidence: 1-2 No Confidence: 1-3 Upset Picks: 1-0 Against the Spread: 66-39-1 Straight Up: 71-34-1 Pick of the Week: 4-3 High Confidence: 4-6 Medium Confidence: 26-7 Low Confidence: 15-11-1 No Confidence:…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3) The Bills have generally been very good at home over the past 2 seasons, going 7-3 ATS in Buffalo, but they’re only 1-1 ATS as favorites. I think this line is way too high at 5.5. The Bills are 3-3, but they’re not…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4) The Seahawks had a very disappointing loss at home to the Cowboys last week, a 30-23 game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. That was just the Seahawks 2nd home loss since they drafted Russell Wilson in 2012. However,…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1) I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008…
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