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Continue reading →: New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
New York Jets (1-5) at New England Patriots (4-2) The Jets are as bad as I expected them to be this season and their record is as bad as they’ve been over the past two seasons. The Jets 8-8 record in 2013 was a farce as the Jets had a…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2) The Bengals played the Panthers to a tie last week and now they have to go on the road to Indianapolis. That puts them at a disadvantage rest wise, for obvious reasons. Ties are rare so there isn’t a big sample size, but…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (4-1) The Chargers are in about as bad as a spot as a team can be this week. They have a huge game 4 days after this in Denver, arguably the biggest game of their season. This game here is important because…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 7
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick Results
Against the Spread: 9-6 Straight Up: 11-3-1 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 1-1 Medium Confidence: 2-2 Low Confidence: 2-1 No Confidence: 4-1 Upset Picks: 2-2 Against the Spread: 57-33-1 Straight Up: 59-31-1 Pick of the Week: 3-3 High Confidence: 3-5 Medium Confidence: 21-7 Low Confidence: 14-9-1 No Confidence:…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2) This is one of the games that I’m most indecivise on this week. Both of these teams are in good spots with easy games up next. The Steelers have a non-divisional home game against an average at best Houston team next week, while…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at New York Jets: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-1) at New York Jets (1-4) The Jets got destroyed last week in San Diego, losing 31-0 and that’s caused a significant line movement. A week ago, this line was at 6 and now it’s at 9.5 and possibly climbing even more before game time. Ordinarily, I like…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-3) The 49ers have generally beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era, dating back to 2011, going 24-15 ATS as favorites of 3+ in that time period. The Rams definitely qualify as a bad team, as they are 1-3…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-4) The Chargers have broken out as one of the top teams in the NFL and are a legitimate contender. Their offense has continued to be as good as it was last season. Last season, they moved the chains at a 78.26% rate,…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4) The Ravens have been very good at home over the past few seasons, since 2008 when Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came to town. However, they haven’t been as good on the road. Since 2008, the Ravens are 43-10 at home, outscoring…
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