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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0) The Bears were one of my overrated teams going into the season. The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1) The Packers got blown out in Seattle week 1, but there’s no shame in that and that doesn’t prove they won’t be a good team this season. They were 6-2 in games that Aaron Rodgers started and finished last season and…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1) Last week I mentioned the Ravens’ home dominance in the write up about their game against the Bengals. The Ravens weren’t able to beat the Bengals, even in Baltimore, but the Ravens are still historically very good at home in the John Harbaugh/Joe…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 1
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks Results
Straight Up: 9-7 Against the Spread: 11-5 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 0-1 Medium Confidence: 5-0 Low Confidence: 2-1 None Confidence: 3-3 Upset Picks: 1-1
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) This is another one I could go either way on. I think the line is essentially where it should be. I have these two teams as fairly even, as does this line, which favors the home team Buccaneers by 2.5 points. These…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0) I don’t think we’re getting any line value with either side here. The Broncos are a very good team that deserves to be 7.5 point favorites over the Colts, who aren’t as good as their record has suggested over the past 2 seasons…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0) Both of these teams are going to be better than they were last season. These two teams finished worst and 2nd worst respectively last season, after both made the playoffs the previous season. The Texans went from 12 wins to 2 wins in…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0) These two teams tend to be a lot better at home than on the road. Matt Ryan is 36-12 at home in his career, including 28-19 ATS and 5-3 ATS as home underdogs. The Saints, meanwhile, are 31-10 ATS at home since…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0) This is another one where I wish I had bet earlier when the Rams were 6 point favorites before Sam Bradford tore his ACL. I thought the Rams were overrated before Bradford’s injury, as they finished 28th in rate of moving the chains…
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