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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) The Bengals lost last week pretty convincingly in Pittsburgh in a surprise loss that really shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to anyone. The Bengals just aren’t the same team on the road. They’ve already lost pretty convincingly on the road to…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6) The two spots the Tom Brady led Patriots are most dangerous in are both in play this week. The Tom Brady led Patriots dominate off of a loss and they dominate when not favored by 3 or more. In his career, Tom…
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Continue reading →: 2013 Week 16 Fantasy Football Pickups
QB Kirk Cousins (Washington) Percent owned (ESPN): 3.0% Kirk Cousins wasn’t perfect or anything, but he put up big fantasy numbers against Atlanta’s defense in his first start, throwing for 381 yards and 3 touchdowns, to go with 2 interceptions. Atlanta’s defense didn’t represent much of a challenge, but neither…
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Continue reading →: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick Results
Week 15 Straight Up: 9-7 Against the Spread: 9-6-1 Pick of the Week: 0-0-1 High Confidence: 1-2 Medium Confidence: 1-0 Low Confidence: 5-4 No Confidence: 2-0 Upset Picks: 0-2 2013 Straight Up: 149-74-1 (.668) Against the Spread: 131-86-7 (.604) Pick of the Week: 8-6-1 High Confidence: 21-8 Medium Confidence: 29-19…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 16
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) The 49ers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against Atlanta next on their schedule. Teams are 84-54 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 5 or more on the road before being…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8) At first glance, this line is exactly where it should be. The Seahawks move the chains at a 74.30% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 5.62% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, move the…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8) So far this season, I’m 12-1 ATS picking Saints game and I would be 12-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9) The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Raiders are one of the worst, by any measure. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs rank 5th, while the Raiders rank 31st. In terms of rate of movement the…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) The Bengals have been dominant at home this season, winning all 6 of their games by an average of 16.00 points per game, including victories over the Colts, Patriots, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. They’ve also covered in all 6 of those…
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