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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this line doesn’t make a ton of sense at first glance. So far this season, the Bears have actually played better than the Cowboys. The Bears rank 10th in DVOA, while the Cowboys rank…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) I’m split on this one. On one hand, the Colts are playing pretty bad football right now. They’re 3-2 since the bye, which doesn’t sound bad, but their 3 wins came by a combined 14 points against the Titans twice and the Texans.…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5) Earlier this year, the Lions won a game despite losing the turnover battle by 4, something that had only happened 19 times prior since 1989. In that game, accumulating 623 yards of offense, as opposed to 268 for the Cowboys, only the 24th time…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1) There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3) Last week, the Patriots played a team that had recently lost at home to the Jaguars and they got into a dogfight, eventually winning by a field goal. This week, the Patriots once again get a team that just lost to the…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (7-5) at St. Louis Rams (5-7) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Rams are in a great spot as road underdogs off of a road loss, after last week’s loss in San Francisco. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9) How can the Chiefs not beat the Redskins by 4 or more right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Chiefs favored by 3.5 here. As is often the case with huge public leans,…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7) The Jets may be 5-7, but they are among the worst teams in the NFL. They have the NFL’s 2nd worst point differential as their 5 wins have come by a combined 19 points, while their 7 losses have come by a…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-8) The Buccaneers are favored here this week, something that has been a very rare occurrence for them this season. They were kind of favored against the Falcons a few weeks ago, favored by 1 point in some places, with the line being…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) This line suggests that those two teams are even, with Pittsburgh favored by 3 at home, because 3 is the standard adjustment for home field advantage. I don’t think that’s true. The Steelers started the year 0-4 because of serious turnover battle problems…
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