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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-8) One thing people who make picks way too often fail to do is look at who the team plays next. In this case, the Cardinals play arguably the best team in the NFL next week when they go to Seattle, while the Titans…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7) Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he…
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Continue reading →: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick Results
Week 14 Straight Up: 10-6 Against the Spread: 5-11 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 1-1 Medium Confidence: 0-3 Low Confidence: 0-4 No Confidence: 4-2 Upset Picks: 0-4 2013 Straight Up: 140-67-1 Against the Spread: 122-80-6 Pick of the Week: 8-6 High Confidence: 20-6 Medium Confidence: 28-19 Low Confidence:…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 15
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this line doesn’t make a ton of sense at first glance. So far this season, the Bears have actually played better than the Cowboys. The Bears rank 10th in DVOA, while the Cowboys rank…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) I’m split on this one. On one hand, the Colts are playing pretty bad football right now. They’re 3-2 since the bye, which doesn’t sound bad, but their 3 wins came by a combined 14 points against the Titans twice and the Texans.…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5) Earlier this year, the Lions won a game despite losing the turnover battle by 4, something that had only happened 19 times prior since 1989. In that game, accumulating 623 yards of offense, as opposed to 268 for the Cowboys, only the 24th time…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1) There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3) Last week, the Patriots played a team that had recently lost at home to the Jaguars and they got into a dogfight, eventually winning by a field goal. This week, the Patriots once again get a team that just lost to the…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (7-5) at St. Louis Rams (5-7) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Rams are in a great spot as road underdogs off of a road loss, after last week’s loss in San Francisco. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover…
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