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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: Week 11 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) at Houston Texans (8-1) This week, when the Jacksonville Jaguars go to Houston to play the Texans it will be the latest a 1-win team has played a 1-loss team since 1990, when the Patriots played the Bills, also during week 11, How long ago was that?…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: Week 11 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-7) The Buccaneers have really turned it around lately and are now road favorites in Carolina, pretty crazy considering they were road dogs in Oakland a couple weeks ago, 6 point dogs in Minnesota the week before that, home dogs for the Saints…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys: Week 11 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5) As many of you who read these picks regularly know, I love using yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to compute real line. Yards per play differential measures how well a team does on an average play (offensive or…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: Week 11 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Denver Broncos (6-3) In my Power Rankings this week I joked, “Why does it feel like the Chargers are going to lose to Denver, fall to 4-6, and then go on their annual late season run, finish 8-8 or 9-7, miss the playoffs barely, and…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: Week 11 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (8-1) The Falcons are 9.5 point favorites here at home, but they’ve struggled to blow teams out this year, winning 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 against teams who, like the Cardinals, currently have a sub .500 record.…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: Week 11 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (4-5) I don’t think it’s possible to talk about the Packers without first talking about how bad their injury situation has gotten. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 11 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-8) Almost every year, we have one team go from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Right now, every playoff team from last year has at least 4 wins. That means one of two things. We’re not going to have a…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders: Week 11 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6) The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential.…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: Week 11 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3) The Colts have been underrated all year. From being home dogs against Minnesota and Miami to being just -3 at home for Jacksonville (though they did lose) and -1 at home for Cleveland to being +3.5 against the Jets in New York…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Week 11 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Washington (3-6) This line has shifted 2 points since last week because of Michael Vick’s injury (-1.5 last week to -3.5 this week), which makes no sense because Michael Vick sucks. Nick Foles went 22 of 32 for 219 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in…
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