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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3-1) Both of these teams have had strong seasons, but the Chargers have been a little better. They rank 5th in point differential at +88 and 2nd in first down rate differential at +7.03%, while the Steelers rank 7th in point differential at…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-6) These two teams have had pretty similar seasons. Both have struggled statistically, as the Dolphins rank 27th in point differential at -60 and 30th in first down rate differential at -6.03%, while the Bills rank 30th in point differential at -111 and 31st…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (4-6-1) at Houston Texans (8-3) The Browns have been playing pretty well lately. Their offense has moved the chains at a 44.75% rate in 3 games since firing Hue Jackson and Todd Haley, while their defense has allowed a first down rate of just 33.78% in 7 games…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at New York Giants: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (8-3) at New York Giants (3-8) I’ve picked the Bears in all but one of their games this season and have bet on them 5 times, going 5-0 ATS. They’ve been underrated for weeks, as their 3 losses have come by a combined 11 points. Winners of 5…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (6-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7) The Falcons have been horrendous on defense this season, allowing opponents to pick up a first down or touchdown on 43.02% of their offensive plays, worst in the NFL, but they get a big boost this week with linebacker Deion Jones returning for…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (10-1) at Detroit Lions (4-7) The book on the Lions since Matt Stafford became a full-time starter in 2011 is to take them in easier games and fade them against tougher opponents. Over that time period, they are 20-39-2 ATS and 20-41 straight up against teams with…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (10-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5) Going into their week 8 bye, the Cowboys were a 3-4 team with a strong defense, but an underwhelming offense. They ranked 4th in first down rate allowed at 31.47%, but just 23rd in first down rate at 33.81%. In order to…
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Continue reading →: 2018 Week 12 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NE -9.5 @ NYJ High Confidence CAR -3 vs. SEA PHI -5.5 vs. NYG TEN +6.5 @ HOU Medium Confidence IND -7.5 vs. MIA DEN +3 vs. PIT BUF +3 vs. JAX Low Confidence CHI -3 @ DET MIN -3 vs. GB LAC -13 vs. ARZ…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers: 2018 Week 12 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (2-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) The Chargers lost at home to the Broncos last week, but they won the first down rate battle (-2.35%) and could have won the game if they made all their extra points. The Broncos are also an underrated team that has played…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: 2018 Week 12 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (2-8) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5) First round rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson will make his second straight start for the Ravens in this one, with Joe Flacco still sidelined with a hip injury. Jackson won his debut, but the jury is still very much out on him as a…
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