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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (6-7) at Detroit Lions (9-4) The Lions are in a good spot here. While they go to Chicago next week, which won’t provide much of a distraction, the Vikings have another tough game on deck, heading to Miami next week. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4) The Colts have been very good at home in the Andrew Luck era, going 16-7 ATS at home since 2002. We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Colts, as they rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 76.26% rate,…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (5-8) at Chicago Bears (5-8) This might be the toughest game of the week for me to pick. On one hand, Drew Brees is 22-7 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline. Brees and Payton generally bounce back…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (7-6) at New England Patriots (10-3) Both of these two teams are in great spots. The Dolphins are playing arguably the biggest game of their season (a must-win on the road against division rival New England), with no upcoming distractions, as their next game is a home game…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (7-6) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4) This line moved from Seattle being favored by 6.5 last week to them now being favored by 10. I normally hate going with huge line movements, especially doing so also means siding with the public, because significant line movements tend to be…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6) This line started out at 6 at the beginning of the week, but now is done to everything from 4-5.5 depending on where you get it. That’s despite the public being all over Green Bay, which suggests that the sharps are on…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-5) Denver is the best team in the league in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.73% rate, as opposed to 71.29% for their opponents, a differential of 6.44%. However, this line is still too high at 4.5. San…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (5-8) The Packers lost last week in Green Bay, but now they return home. The Falcons are 32-21-1 ATS at home (39-15 straight up) since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy, including 8-3…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5) Baltimore is generally very good at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1) at Cleveland Browns (7-6) This line has shifted from the Bengals being favored by 1.5 earlier in the week to the Browns now being favored by 1.5. That erased a powerful trend working against the Bengals and replaced it with a powerful trend that works for the…
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