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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (5-10) at Minnesota Vikings (6-9) The Bears made a curious move last week, benching big money quarterback Jay Cutler for journeyman backup Jimmy Clausen. Cutler wasn’t necessarily living up to his contract, but the offense wasn’t the issue with the team, as they were moving the chains at…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-13) The Colts were embarrassed last week in a 42-7 loss in Dallas. I had Colts +3 as my Pick of the Week and I messed up big time. I failed to take into account the Colts’ relative road struggles, their struggles with quality…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13) The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs last week with their 5th straight home loss, a loss to Atlanta which dropped them to 6-9 on the season. However, they’ve played well enough this season to suggest that if they played an…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at New York Giants (6-9) This line has flipped from Philadelphia being favored by 3 to New York being favored by 3 over the course of the past week, a huge line movement. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense and it does here.…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 17
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 7-8-1 Straight Up: 8-8 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 0-0 Medium Confidence: 4-1 Low Confidence: 2-3 No Confidence: 1-3-1 Upset Picks: 0-1 On the season Against the Spread: 132-104-4 (.559) Straight Up: 151-88-1 (.632) Pick of the Week: 8-7-1 High Confidence: 8-10 Medium…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Pro-Bowl Selections
QB: Tom Brady (New England), Drew Brees (New Orleans), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis), Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh), Tony Romo (Dallas) RB: LeVeon Bell (Pittsburgh), Jamaal Charles (Kansas City), Justin Forsett (Baltimore), Marshawn Lynch (Seattle), Eddie Lacy (Green Bay), DeMarco Murray (Dallas) FB: Anthony Sherman (Kansas City), Ryan Hewitt…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) This is the toughest game of the week for me to predict. These two teams are almost identical in terms of rate of moving the chains differential this year, with Pittsburgh coming in 6th, and Kansas City coming in 7th. The Steelers…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (11-3) A lot is made about the Seahawks’ homefield advantage in the NFC West, but the Cardinals have had a tough homefield advantage in recent years as well, going 29-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. This season…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (6-8) The Saints recently won 20 straight home games with Sean Payton and Drew Brees, covering in almost all of them (18-1-1 ATS), but they’ve since lost 4 straight games at home, all as favorites. On the season, they are just 2-5 ATS…
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