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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
New York Jets (2-11) at Tennessee Titans (2-11) The Titans are a really bad team, moving within percentage points of a Raiders team that previously seemed untouchably in last place in rate of moving the chains, after a blowout home loss to the Giants last week. They move the chains…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) The Eagles won in Dallas a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t mean these two teams aren’t even. The Eagles rank 11th, moving the chains at 71.46% rate, as opposed to 70.14% for their opponents, a differential of 1.32%. The Cowboys, very similarly,…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-11) at Carolina Panthers (4-8-1) Cam Newton is out for this one with a back injury suffered in a car accident this week. That caused this line to move from 5 to 3.5 with Derek Anderson coming in to make his 2nd start of the season. That’s…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (6-7) At first glance, this line seems off. The Cardinals aren’t as good as their 10-3 record, but rate of moving the chains differential still says we’re getting a significant amount of line value with them as 4.5 point underdogs. The Cardinals rank…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (4-9) One of the most powerful trends says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically, which makes a lot of sense. The problem with this trend is it’s often very…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 5-10-1 Straight Up: 9-7 Pick of the Week: 0-0-1 High Confidence: 0-2 Medium Confidence: 1-3 Low Confidence: 3-2 No Confidence: 1-3 Upset Picks: 1-3 On the season Against the Spread: 117-89-2 (.568) Straight Up: 135-72-1 (.652) Pick of the Week: 8-5-1 High Confidence: 8-10 Medium…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 15
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (9-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-4) On the season, the Patriots are moving the chains at a 78.05% rate, as opposed to 73.15% for their opponents, a differential of 4.90% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chargers move the chains at a 74.93% rate, as…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (7-5) The Browns are in a bad spot here with the Bengals coming to town net week. Teams are 15-30 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. However, they should still be the right side. This line is too…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) The Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average…
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