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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (7-7) At first glance, this line is actually a little bit too low at 7. The Dolphins rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.16% rate, as opposed to 72.84% for their opponents, a differential of 1.33%. Meanwhile,…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Houston Texans (7-7) This line was Houston -1 last week and now it’s Baltimore -6 in Houston. That’s a massive line movement, as it’s moved a full touchdown to compensate for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s injury. That’s a massive overreaction. Fitzpatrick is decent, but the Texans’ offense ranks…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Oakland Raiders (2-12) This line shifted from 4.5 to 6 over the past week with the Bills winning at home in upset fashion over the Packers. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense because they’re usually overreactions, especially when I can do so…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (10-4) at Chicago Bears (5-9) This line was 4.5 last week, but it’s since moved to 7 in favor of the Lions, a line movement of 2.5 points that crossed both significant numbers of 6 and 7. It’s easy to understand why the line moved after the Bears…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5) The Cowboys got an impressive victory in Philadelphia last week and that moved this line from even to 3 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense. This is a significant movement, going as it’s now at…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (2-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) This is the worst game of the year. Both of these two teams rank in the bottom-3 in rate of moving the chains differential and have for most of the season. This is the only game this year between two teams that bad.…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 16
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 8-7-1 Straight Up: 8-8 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 0-0 Medium Confidence: 3-4 Low Confidence: 1-1-1 No Confidence: 4-1 Upset Picks: 1-5 On the season Against the Spread: 125-96-3 (.566) Straight Up: 135-72-1 (.652) Pick of the Week: 8-6-1 High Confidence: 8-10 Medium…
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Continue reading →: Off-season Hobbies of NFL Stars
During the NFL offseason, we tend to hear a lot about what players are doing wrong, or at least the controversies that come up in their lives. A few years back, it was the horrible news that former Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez was being arrested on suspicion of murder. This…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) The Raiders pulled the improbable upset over the 49ers last week as 8 point home underdogs and they did so in convincing fashion, but we’re still getting line value with the Chiefs as 10 only point home favorites here. The Raiders still…
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