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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Washington Redskins (4-11) I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has shifted from 8 to 6 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements as they’re often overreactions. This line movement could very well be an overreaction. While the Redskins beat…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-9) This line is off as it suggests the Falcons are the better of these two teams, considering they are favored by 4. Meanwhile, rate of moving the chains suggests the Panthers are the better team, as they rank 15th in the NFL, moving…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (8-7) at New England Patriots (12-3) I’m kicking myself for not locking in Buffalo +10.5 before the Bengals/Broncos game. Even when I thought the Broncos were going to win that game and force the Patriots to play their starters week 17, in order to lock up the #1…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) The Bengals lost 42-21 at home to the Steelers a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, but they’re in a great revenge spot here as a result. Divisional home favorites are 27-52 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (6-9) at Seattle Seahawks (11-4) The Seahawks had easily the most impressive win of the week last week, going into Arizona, where the Cardinals were 7-0 at home this season and 29-11 ATS since 2007 before the game started, and winning 35-6, despite two missed makeable field…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (9-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-7) The Chiefs beat the Chargers in San Diego earlier this season, but that’s because the Chargers were in a terrible spot (the worst spot I’ve seen all since), with a Thursday Night road game in Denver on deck, while the Chiefs…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (11-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-4) The Packers failed to cover in their previous home game, a 43-37 home victory over the Falcons, but that’s the only time they’ve failed to cover at home this season, en route to a thus far perfect 7-0 mark at home. On…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6) The Browns’ offense ranks 27th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, and they’ve gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on. They’re moving the chains at a pathetic 63.44% rate over the past 10 games since Alex Mack…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Houston Texans (8-7) This game involves a significant line movement as the Texans were 7.5 point favorites according to the early line last week, while they are now 10 point favorites. I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as significant line movements…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7) The Jets said it themselves (or at least safety Calvin Pryor did). Last week’s game at home against the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Jets, they can’t even win pretend Super Bowls, but they did only lose by 1,…
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