Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
This is the toughest game of the week for me to predict. These two teams are almost identical in terms of rate of moving the chains differential this year, with Pittsburgh coming in 6th, and Kansas City coming in 7th. The Steelers have the better offense, moving the chains at a 78.23% rate, but allow opponents to move the chains at a 73.81% rate, a differential of 4.42%. Meanwhile, the Chiefs struggle, relatively, offensively, moving the chains at a 73.98% rate, but only allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.76% rate, a differential of 4.21%.
The Chiefs seem to be in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation in which teams are 124-94 ATS since 2002, but it’s hard to classify this as a good spot, considering they have an equally big game next week against San Diego. Even though both of these teams are will be home favorites next week, neither as an easy game as the Chiefs host the Chargers and the Steelers host the Bengals in game that will have significant implications for the playoff race. Both of these two teams are essentially in the same spot with both teams controlling their own destiny to make the playoffs, if they win each of the next two games. Between that and how similar they’ve played on the field, this game is borderline impossible to call, but I’m going with the Chiefs and fading a slight public lean.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 21
Pick against the spread: Kansas City +3