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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) The Steelers put up 51 points last week in an impressive 51-34 victory over a very good Indianapolis team. However, last week’s performance could easily hurt them this week. Underdogs are 12-27 ATS since 1989 after scoring 40 or more points as underdogs.…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3) Despite losing to the Cowboys in their last home game, the Seahawks have still been close to automatic at home recently. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 43-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-20-1…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at New York Giants (3-4) The Colts surprisingly lost in Pittsburgh last week by the final score of 51-34 as 3.5 point favorites. This week, they are once again 3.5 point road favorites here in New York against the Giants, but I think the result will be…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (2-5) at San Francisco 49ers (4-3) The Rams were blown out last week in Kansas City as 7 point underdogs, but I have reasons to believe that they won’t get blown out here as 10 point underdogs in San Francisco. One, they are in their second straight…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
New York Jets (1-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) This game has had the biggest line movement from last week to this week, as the Chiefs were just 5 point favorites in the early line last week, as opposed to 10 point favorites now. The reason for that is obvious…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (3-4-1) I’ve been high on the Saints this whole season, picking them to win the Super Bowl before the season and not really wavering from that a ton even as they got out to a 2-4 start. That 2-4 start was largely a…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-3) The Browns are at the end of one of the easiest stretches of play any team in the league has this season, as they went to 0-6 Jacksonville, hosted 0-6 Oakland, and now host 1-6 Tampa Bay. However, next week they have…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2) On the season, the Patriots are just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite their 6-2 record, as they’ve been overly reliant on a +11 turnover margin. They are moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, as opposed to 73.18%…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 9
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick Results
Against the Spread: 10-5 Straight Up: 11-4 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 3-2 Low Confidence: 2-3 No Confidence: 3-0 Upset Picks: 1-1 Against the Spread: 76-44-1 (.633) Straight Up: 82-38-1 (.683) Pick of the Week: 5-3 High Confidence: 5-6 Medium Confidence: 29-9 Low Confidence: 17-14-1…
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