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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5-1) The Eagles have lost Nick Foles for an extended period of time, but he had not been playing well. He was completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and he wasn’t even as good…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3) On the season, the Bears have actually played a little bit better, as they rank 13th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.22% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8) This feels like a classic Steeler let down game. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers are just 7-18 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-15 ATS off of a win, 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
New York Giants (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3) The Seahawks have fallen flat at home in their previous 2 home games, losing as big home favorites to the Cowboys and then beating the lowly Raiders by just 6 points last week as 14 point favorites. However, I still really like…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) The Falcons are coming off of a bye in this game. One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites dominant off of a bye, going 50-21 ATS since 2002, including 24-6 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4) The Ravens have lost two straight, but I really like their chances of bouncing back here in a big way for a variety of reasons. For one thing, they’ve historically done very well off of big losses in the John Harbaugh era, going…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-4) Both of these teams are 4-4, but one of them is significantly better. While the 49ers rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Saints are all the way up at 5th. The 49ers move the chains at a…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3) Both of these two teams are 5-3, but one I think is very underrated and the other is very overrated. The Chiefs are significantly better than their solid record and are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL. The Chiefs…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1) The Bengals have a solid record at 5-2-1, but they are 2-0-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they have a +7 point differential and their two losses came by a combined 53 points. They aren’t nearly as good as…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 10
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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