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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-4) Both of these teams are 4-4, but one of them is significantly better. While the 49ers rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Saints are all the way up at 5th. The 49ers move the chains at a…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3) Both of these two teams are 5-3, but one I think is very underrated and the other is very overrated. The Chiefs are significantly better than their solid record and are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL. The Chiefs…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1) The Bengals have a solid record at 5-2-1, but they are 2-0-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they have a +7 point differential and their two losses came by a combined 53 points. They aren’t nearly as good as…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 10
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 6-7 Straight Up: 7-6 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 2-2 Low Confidence: 1-2 No Confidence: 1-3 Upset Picks: 1-2 On the season Against the Spread: 82-51-1 (.617) Straight Up: 89-44-1 (.669) Pick of the Week: 6-3 High Confidence: 6-6 Medium…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-5) This is a tough one. The Vikings are going into a bye and teams are 37-61 ATS since 2002 at home going into a bye as favorites of 1-5.5 points. This line is right at even so this game might not qualify, but…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4) This line had a significant movement from last week, moving two points from an even line to 2 points in favor of Philadelphia. It’s not a huge deal considering it’s still less than a field goal, but it still doesn’t make any sense…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2) Tony Romo is not expected to play in this game, but I like their chances of covering this spread even without him so I’m going to lock this pick in now while the line is still where it is. If Romo ends up…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (5-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-3) The Chargers were blown out in Denver last week, but there are a few reasons why I see them bouncing back this week. The most obvious is that this is a much easier game than last week. As solid as Miami has…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1) Overall on the season, the Bengals really haven’t played well, as they rank way down at 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 75.10% for their opponents, a differential of -3.74%. However,…
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