Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)
The public is all over the Seahawks here and most people assume the defending Super Bowl champs will win straight up here in Kansas City. Then why do the odds makers (who always make money in the long run) have them favored here by 1? Well, it’s because the sharps (who also always make money in the long run) are all over the Chiefs. That’s because the Chiefs are the superior team and at home here. The Chiefs rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential at 76.98%, as opposed to 70.34% for their opponents, a differential of 6.64%.
That might sound absurd considering they’re just 6-3, but they have a +66 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. The Seahawks, on the other hand, rank 7th moving the chains at a 76.17% rate, as opposed to 72.28% for their opponents, a differential of 3.89%.
That’s before you even take into account that the Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 45-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 43-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.68 points per game. This is opposed to a 24-41 record away from home (28-36-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.75 points per game. They’re even worse on the road as road underdogs, going 15-24 ATS in that spot since 2007, including 9-17 ATS as road underdogs off a home game, and 3-12 ATS as road underdogs off a home game and before another home game.
This is only the 2nd time they’ve been road underdogs over the past 2 seasons, but for good reason (the only game was last year’s in San Francisco). They aren’t as good as they were last season (the fact that they’ll be without Bobby Wagner, Brandon Mebane, and possibly Kam Chancellor this week doesn’t help) and Kansas City is very good. Also, while Seattle has Arizona up next (even though it’s a home game, it’s a bigger game for them), the Chiefs have a much easier game in Oakland up next. Teams are 83-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 53-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 21-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Kansas City -7.5). I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, especially when they’re on an underdog, and it definitely makes sense here. This is my Pick of the Week.
Kansas City Chiefs 17 Seattle Seahawks 9
Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1
Confidence: Pick of the Week