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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-2) The Patriots are in three spots this week that have easily been auto-bets for them in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. They are 1.5 point underdogs here at home. They are coming off of a loss. And they are facing an opponent…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3) The Saints are 1-3, which has caused some people to hit the panic button for them, much like they did for the Packers last week (how did that work out?). The Saints did not look good in Dallas last week, but…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2) The Falcons’ road woes are well documented and they reared their head again last week as the Falcons lost to the Vikings and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, a week after blowing out the Buccaneers 56-14 on Thursday Night Football. Now…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 5
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick Results
Against the Spread: 8-4-1 Straight Up: 9-4 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 0-0 Medium Confidence: 1-2 Low Confidence: 5-1-1 No Confidence: 1-1 Upset Picks: 2-0 Against the Spread: 39-21-1 Straight Up: 36-25 Pick of the Week: 3-1 High Confidence: 1-3 Medium Confidence: 14-4 Low Confidence: 11-6-1 No Confidence:…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) This is another game where there’s been significant line movement as the Patriots were 6.5 point favorites last week in this game and now they’re 3.5 point favorites, after the Patriots barely beat the Raiders in New England and the Chiefs…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at New York Jets: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2) This line seems too low. On paper, the Lions should be at least field goal favorites here and win by at least a field goal even on the road against the Jets. Even after beating the Packers, I still think the Lions…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders in London: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-3) in London The Dolphins should cover this spread fairly easily as mere 3.5 point favorites in a neutral site game against the pathetic Raiders. This line was at 7 last week before the Dolphins got blown out at home by the Chiefs. Obviously…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2) Atlanta dominated last week at home against the Buccaneers, winning 56-14, moving the chains at an 82.05% rate, as opposed to 47.83% for the Buccaneers. However, now they go on the road to Minnesota and they haven’t had nearly as much success on…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1) Both of these teams started a surprising 2-0 after finishing with a top-10 pick last season and then fell flat in their 3rd game of the season last week to fall to 2-1. However, one team is significantly better than the other. While…
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