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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1) This is a tough one. On one hand, the Saints’ road struggles are well documented and they’ve been especially bad over the past two seasons. Just this season, they’ve already lost in Atlanta and Cleveland as road favorites. The Saints are 3-9…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1) Baltimore is usually an auto-bet at home as long as they aren’t big favorites. The Ravens are 42-10 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 20-11 ATS as home favorites of…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
New York Giants (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2) The Redskins actually lead the league in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin at 14.08%, but most of that game in that domination against the terrible Jaguars in which they had a rate of moving the chains differential…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2) Ordinarily, I’d be all over the 49ers here considering how good they’ve been as big favorites and how good they’ve been off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-4-1 ATS off of a loss and…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2) The Titans were 7 point underdogs in Cincinnati last week and got blown out by the score of 33-7. Now they’re 7.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis. I think this week will go a little differently for several reasons. For one, the Colts aren’t…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) The Buccaneers were blown out in Atlanta last week 56-14. A similar thing should happen this week in Pittsburgh right? Not necessarily. Teams are 45-24 ATS since 2002 coming off of 35+ point losses. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1) The Packers fell flat in Detroit last week in a 19-7 loss, but things should be different this week in Chicago for a number of reasons. One, Detroit is a significantly better team than Chicago, an opinion I’ve held since the pre-season.…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1) The Jaguars are one of three remaining 0-3 teams. They have the worst point differential in the NFL at -75. The second worst is Tampa Bay at -50 and the majority of that (-42) came last week. The third worst is St.…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 4
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks Results
Against the Spread: 11-5 Straight Up: 10-6 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 4-1 Low Confidence: 2-2 No Confidence: 3-2 Upset Picks: 1-1 Against the Spread: 31-17 Straight Up: 27-21 Pick of the Week: 2-1 High Confidence: 1-3 Medium Confidence: 13-2 Low Confidence: 6-5 No Confidence:…
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