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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4) The Chargers are 5-4, but their only win by more than one score came by 10 points against arguably the worst team in the league in the Houston Texans, while two of their losses came by 14 points or more, giving…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1) The Vikings are 8-1, but they have won all seven of their one-score games and have won the turnover battle by 8 (2nd best in the NFL), both of which are not sustainable long-term. They beat the Bills last week, but Buffalo was…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (3-7) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6) A week ago on the early line, the Falcons were 5-point favorites, but this line has since shrunk to favor the Falcons by 3, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 5 games are decided by 3-4 points exactly. That is likely…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (4-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-4) in Mexico City Typically the rule of thumb is to take the favorite in neutral site international games, as the better team tends to have a bigger international fan base and tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
New York Jets (6-3) at New England Patriots (5-4) The Patriots play again a few days after this game, facing the Vikings on Thanksgiving, which would normally put the Patriots in a bad spot, as favorites cover at just a 44.6% rate before Thursday Night Football, but the Patriots are…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at New York Giants: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (3-6) at New York Giants (7-2) This line moved from favoring the Giants by four points on the early line last week to just three points this week, a significant swing given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly three points. Normally I like to go…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-6) Both of these teams are 3-6 and have serious injury problems, among the worst in the league. The Rams will get quarterback Matt Stafford back from a one-game absence with a concussion, but he’ll return to a team that lost arguably…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) at Denver Broncos (3-6) The Broncos are off to a disappointing start, sitting at 3-6, while ranking 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about five points below average, suggesting they’ve played just as bad, if not worse than their record suggests. Injuries have been a huge part…
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Continue reading →: Washington Commanders at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Washington Commanders (5-5) at Houston Texans (1-7-1) This line shifted from favoring the Commanders by 2.5 points on the early line last week to 3 points this week, a significant shift considering 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly. That’s because the Commanders pulled the surprising…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1) The Eagles lost their first game of the season last week at home against the Washington Commanders, but that was primarily because the Commanders converted 13 of 22 on third and fourth downs and won the turnover battle by two, allowing Washington to…
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