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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Detroit Lions (1-6) The Packers have started 3-5, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-4) The Bengals have been better than their 4-4 record this season, with a +22 point differential and an 8th ranked schedule adjusted efficiency, three points above average. However, they are one of the most injury affected teams in the league right now, missing…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4) Coming into the season, I thought the Chargers were one of the most talented teams in the league, but they have been arguably the most injury affected team in the league since then, with several key players missing extended time. While center…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5) The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated teams list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency,…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) The Jaguars are just 2-6, but they actually have a positive point differential at +14, as all six of their losses have come by eight points or fewer, with an average margin of 6.3 points per game, while their two wins have…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) at Houston Texans (1-5-1) A week ago on the early line, the Eagles were favored by 9 points in this matchup with the Texans in Houston, but this line has since shifted all the way up to 14. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 8 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week MIN -3.5 vs. ARZ High Confidence Picks NA Medium Confidence Picks DAL -9.5 vs. CHI HOU +3 vs. TEN ATL -4 vs. CAR TB -1 vs. BAL Low Confidence Picks BUF -11 vs. GB PIT +10.5 @ PHI CLE +3 vs. CIN NO +1.5 vs. LV…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-5) The Browns are just 2-5, but they aren’t getting blown out, with all but one of their losses coming by a field goal or less. Their point differential is -18, which is better than their record would suggest, and they are even better…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (3-4) at New York Jets (5-2) The Jets are off to a surprising 5-2 start and, while they probably aren’t as good as that record suggests, they are probably still better than they are being given credit for, as 2.5-point home underdogs against the Patriots. It’s surprising…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
New York Giants (6-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3) The Giants are a surprising 6-1, but all of their wins have come by one score and they have been lucky to win some of them. Despite their record, they actually rank just 22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, about two points below…
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