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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (3-7) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3) This line is pretty high, favoring the Ravens by 12.5, but I don’t think it’s high enough, as this is a matchup of among the best and among the worst teams in the league, with the better team, the Baltimore Ravens at home.…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6) The Steelers are just 3-6, but they’ve faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, facing a .500 or better team in seven of their nine games. When strength of schedule is factored in, the Steelers actually rank 15th in overall efficiency,…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (3-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-3) in Detroit This ends up being a neutral site game for the Bills, with their matchup against the Browns being relocated to Detroit because of a snowstorm in Buffalo. Despite that, the Bills are still favored by 7.5 points, suggesting they’re that much…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-6) In ordinary circumstances, I would like the Packers a lot this week. The Packers are a disappointing 4-6 and their 21st ranked schedule adjusted efficiency suggests they’ve played at about the level their record would suggest, but it hasn’t helped that they’ve…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 10 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week LAR -1.5 vs. ARZ High Confidence Picks None Medium Confidence Picks SF -7 vs. LAC Low Confidence Picks LV -4.5 vs. IND CAR +3 vs. ATL DAL -4.5 @ GB PHI -11 vs. WAS PIT +1.5 vs. NO DET +3 @ CHI SEA +2.5 vs. TB…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) The Colts have had a disastrous season. Their offense has been horrible (26th in offensive schedule adjusted efficiency) and attempts to improve it, by benching veteran quarterback Matt Ryan for unproven 2021 6th round pick Sam Ehlinger and by firing offensive coordinator…
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Continue reading →: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Washington Commanders (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-0) The Eagles have benefited from a +15 turnover margin en route to their 8-0 start, which is by far the best in the league, but also not something that is predictive long-term. However, the Eagles still rank 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, four…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4) The 49ers are favored by a touchdown at home against the Chargers, which might seem like a lot if you look at these two teams’ records, but neither team’s record tells the whole story. The Chargers are 5-3, but their only…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at Los Angeles Rams (3-5) This game is complicated because both teams have quarterbacks questionable due to injury. In the Rams case, Matt Stafford seems highly unlikely to be able to clear the concussion protocol in time to start this week, while Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray could…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (7-1) at Buffalo Bills (6-2) In ordinary circumstances, I would like the Bills this week. They lost to the Jets as 11.5-point favorites in a close game last week, but the Jets are at least a decent team and teams tend to bounce back from big upset losses…
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