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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4) The 49ers are favored by a touchdown at home against the Chargers, which might seem like a lot if you look at these two teams’ records, but neither team’s record tells the whole story. The Chargers are 5-3, but their only…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at Los Angeles Rams (3-5) This game is complicated because both teams have quarterbacks questionable due to injury. In the Rams case, Matt Stafford seems highly unlikely to be able to clear the concussion protocol in time to start this week, while Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray could…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (7-1) at Buffalo Bills (6-2) In ordinary circumstances, I would like the Bills this week. They lost to the Jets as 11.5-point favorites in a close game last week, but the Jets are at least a decent team and teams tend to bounce back from big upset losses…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-3) The Titans have two more wins than the Broncos, so it may be surprising to see them only favored by a field goal at home, but the Titans haven’t been blowing teams out in their victories, with all coming by nine points or…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-6) This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Packers have been close to an automatic bet at home with Aaron Rodgers in his career, going 47-21 ATS in games he starts and finishes, including 5-1 ATS as home underdogs, as…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6) These two teams have similar records, but the Saints have a -15 point differential, despite a -10 turnover margin, while the Steelers have a -77 point differential, with a -4 turnover margin. That suggests the Saints have played much better to this…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3) The Dolphins are 6-0 in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa, but they haven’t really been blowing teams out, with their only victory by more than six points coming in a game against the Patriots in which the Dolphins won the turnover…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at New York Giants: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-6-1) at New York Giants (6-2) The Giants are 6-2, but they haven’t played nearly as well as that suggests, coming from behind to barely win most of their victories. In terms of time leading, the Giants rank 4th worst in the NFL and in terms of schedule…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (2-6) at Chicago Bears (3-6) A week ago on the early line, the Bears were favored by 1.5 points at home in this matchup with the Lions, but now they are favored by 3, a significant swing, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) Despite their 3-6 record, the Jaguars have a positive point differential at +21 and rank 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average. That’s in large part due to all six of their losses being decided by eight points or…
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