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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-3) The Titans have two more wins than the Broncos, so it may be surprising to see them only favored by a field goal at home, but the Titans haven’t been blowing teams out in their victories, with all coming by nine points or…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-6) This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Packers have been close to an automatic bet at home with Aaron Rodgers in his career, going 47-21 ATS in games he starts and finishes, including 5-1 ATS as home underdogs, as…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6) These two teams have similar records, but the Saints have a -15 point differential, despite a -10 turnover margin, while the Steelers have a -77 point differential, with a -4 turnover margin. That suggests the Saints have played much better to this…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3) The Dolphins are 6-0 in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa, but they haven’t really been blowing teams out, with their only victory by more than six points coming in a game against the Patriots in which the Dolphins won the turnover…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at New York Giants: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-6-1) at New York Giants (6-2) The Giants are 6-2, but they haven’t played nearly as well as that suggests, coming from behind to barely win most of their victories. In terms of time leading, the Giants rank 4th worst in the NFL and in terms of schedule…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (2-6) at Chicago Bears (3-6) A week ago on the early line, the Bears were favored by 1.5 points at home in this matchup with the Lions, but now they are favored by 3, a significant swing, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) Despite their 3-6 record, the Jaguars have a positive point differential at +21 and rank 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average. That’s in large part due to all six of their losses being decided by eight points or…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) in Munich Typically the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, who covers at a 61.9% rate historically, as the better team tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like an overseas game. However,…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (2-7) Two weeks ago, the Panthers were 4-point underdogs in Atlanta and covered the spread in a close loss by a field goal in overtime. Given that, it’s surprising to see the Panthers as home underdogs of a full field goal in this rematch.…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 9 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week ATL +3 vs. LAC High Confidence Picks SEA +2 @ ARZ Medium Confidence Picks CIN -7 vs. CAR DET +3.5 vs. GB JAX +2 vs. LV Low Confidence Picks KC -12.5 vs. TEN BAL -2.5 @ NO NE -5.5 vs. IND NYJ +11.5 vs. BUF No…
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