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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-4) The Panthers pulled the massive upset at home against the Buccaneers last week as 13-point home underdogs, but teams tend to have a hard time following up a big home upset win, covering at a 41.9% rate all-time after a home upset win…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) The Buccaneers have lost back-to-back games as big road favorites against last place teams to fall to 3-4 on the season, but they still rank 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 2.5 points above average and, even with some key players missing…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 7 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week WAS +5 vs. GB High Confidence Picks NYJ -1 @ DEN Medium Confidence Picks DAL -6.5 vs. DET IND +2.5 @ TEN NE -8.5 vs. CHI Low Confidence Picks PIT +7.5 @ MIA LAC -5 vs. SEA JAX -3 vs. NYG KC -1 @ SF ATL…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (2-4) at New England Patriots (3-3) Coming into the season, many regarded the Bears as among the worst, if not the worst team in the league. They won a couple early games, but the way they won those games suggested they were still one of the worst teams…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-3) The Chiefs have a pair of losses, but both of them were games they easily could have won. One of the losses came by 4 points on a late drive against a Bills team that is arguably the best in the…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (1-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2) The Lions began the season as the highest scoring team in the league through 4 games, averaging 35.0 points per game, before being shut out in week 5 against the Patriots. The common thinking seems to be that the Lions’ dominant offensive start…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
New York Giants (5-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) The Giants have a 5-1 record, while the Jaguars are just 2-4, but the Jaguars actually have the better point differential between these two teams (+24 vs. +14). While all of the Giants’ wins have come by just one score, the Jaguars’…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
New York Jets (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4) A week ago on the early line, the Broncos were 3.5-point favorites, but this line has since shrunk to favor the Broncos by only one point. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be an overreaction…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2) When these two teams met for the first time this season back in week 4, the Titans pulled the road upset by a final score of 24-17. With this rematch being in Tennessee, many are assuming that the Titans will have an easier…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-3-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-4) The Raiders are favored by a touchdown this week, despite being just 1-4, but they’ve been competitive in all of their losses, with an average margin of defeat of just 3.5 points, and this home game against the Texans is the easiest…
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