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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0) We’re not getting significant line value with the Buccaneers as 2.5-point road favorites in Dallas this week and, in fact, my calculated line is Tampa Bay -1, meaning we’re actually getting a little line value with the Dallas, but that’s pretty insignificant…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0) The Bears traded a future first round pick to move up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Justin Fields as their quarterback of the future. Fields is now going into his second season in the league, which is typically when teams…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0) The Packers were likely to see their win total regress regardless in 2022, needing to go 6-3 in games decided by 8 points or fewer to go 13-4 last season, finishing with just a +79 point differential (10th in the NFL) and…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
New York Giants (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0) The Titans finished last season at 12-5, with the AFC’s best record and #1 seed by virtue of tiebreakers, but they ranked just 19th in team efficiency, benefiting from a 6-2 record in one-score games and a +4 return touchdown margin, two…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0) The Texans won just four games last season and they were even worse than that suggests as their only win in which they won the first down rate battle was their week one home victory over a Jaguars team that finished with an…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) The Chargers are one of my top contenders for the Super Bowl, bringing back every key player from an offense that ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency last season and drastically improving a defense that ranked just 24th in defensive efficiency a…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0) The Lions have a good chance to take a big step forward on offense this season, but the biggest reason for that is that their offensive line should be healthier than a year ago, when their top two offensive linemen Taylor Decker and…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0) The Cardinals are one of my top picks to regress this season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0) The Patriots are my top pick this week, for a number of reasons. For one, they are underdogs of 3.5 points, which is the line that covers most often, about 53.2% of the time historically. That’s not a coincidence. Games are decided…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) The Steelers have made the post-season in back-to-back years with records of 12-4 and 9-7-1 respectively, but, in order to do that, they’ve needed to go 7-2 and 8-2-1 in one score games in the two seasons respectively, which is highly unlikely to…
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