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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills: 2019 Week 12 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-3) At first glance, the Bills are having a strong season, going 7-3 and ranking 6th in first down rate differential at +4.18%. However, they’ve played by far the easiest schedule in the NFL so far. Their seven wins have come against teams that…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 12 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at Los Angeles Rams (6-4) The Ravens are the hottest team in the NFL right now, having won four straight games by 14+ points, making them the 24th team to do so in the past 30 years. The common thinking is that makes them a great bet,…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 12 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (6-4) at Houston Texans (6-4) This is a huge Thursday night game, as these two teams enter tied atop the AFC South. This line, favoring the hometown Texans by 3.5 points, suggests the Texans are the slightly better team. First down rate suggests that as well, as these…
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Continue reading →: 2019 Week 11 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week ATL +4.5 @ CAR High Confidence Picks LAC +6 vs. KC Medium Confidence Picks NE -4 @ PHI NO -5.5 @ TB CIN +13 @ OAK Low Confidence Picks BUF -6.5 @ MIA IND -2.5 vs. JAX DAL -7 @ DET No Confidence Picks SF -10…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
New York Jets (2-7) at Washington Redskins (1-8) These two teams are very similar. Both have had awful seasons, as the Jets rank 31st in first down rate differential at -7.54% and the Redskins rank 30th at -7.07%, but both have been slightly better when a key player has been…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1) The 49ers got off to a dominant 7-0 start to the season, winning their first 7 games by a 18.57 points per game, despite only a +4 turnover margin, and leading the league with an incredible +12.75% first down rate differential. However,…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) in Mexico City The Chargers have gotten off to a disappointing 4-6 start, a year after going 12-4. They’ve been better than their record suggests though. While their six losses have come by just a combined 29 points, with none coming…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (7-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) The Saints suffered a shocking home loss to the Falcons as 13.5-point home favorites last week, not just losing but losing by the final score of 26-9 in a game in which they lost the first down rate battle by 8.57%.…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (6-3) at Miami Dolphins (2-7) The Dolphins have won back-to-back games after getting off to a horrendous 0-7 start, but they still rank dead last in the NFL in first down rate differential at -8.98%. Even in last week’s win in Indianapolis, they lost the first down rate…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (4-5) at Los Angeles Rams (5-4) A year ago, this was a marquee matchup in the NFC, with both teams going on to win 12+ games. This season, however, both teams are having disappointing seasons. The Bears actually led the NFL in first down rate differential in 2018…
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