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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Houston Texans (6-4) The Chargers are just 4-6, but they’ve been significantly better than their record this season. All 6 of their losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game. Their +14 point differential is solid and they rank…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
New York Giants (7-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-11) The Giants haven’t won a game by more than a touchdown all season and have a 7-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Ordinarily, I like to pick against teams that are regularly squeaking out victories, especially as big…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (4-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4) I picked the Cardinals as 2 point underdogs in Minnesota last week and they outplayed the Vikings for most of the game, but ultimately lost 30-24 thanks to not one, but two 100+ yard return touchdowns by Minnesota, the first team to do…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Chicago Bears (2-9) Despite 5-6 record, the Titans enter this game 6th in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a +6 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (7-2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 32-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived (including 2-0 ATS so far this season). This has been very…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (4-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-6) The Saints are just 4-6, but rank 4th in first down rate differential. They have 29 more first downs than their opponents on the season and 7 more offensive touchdowns, but are just 4-6 because of a -4 margin in return…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-5) Last week, I took the Jaguars as 6.5 point underdogs in Detroit for a big play and it was one of the most frustrating losses I can remember. Despite scoring on both a punt return and an interception return, the Lions led by…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) When this line opened at 3 in favor of the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers, I was going to put money on the Colts. The Colts have had great homefield advantage in recent years with Andrew Luck under center, going 23-11 ATS, including 8-1 ATS…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (6-3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1) I mentioned this in my Minnesota/Detroit pick as well. Divisional road underdogs are 60-33 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites. Division rivals know each other well, so it makes sense…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Detroit Lions (6-4) The Vikings lost at home to the Lions in upset fashion a few weeks ago, but the good news is comparable teams tend to split the season series, even if the road team pulls the upset in the first game. Divisional road underdogs…
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