Detroit Lions (2-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

This is a tough game to make a determination on right now because both teams have so many important players who are legitimately questionable with injury. For the Packers, the status of top running back Aaron Jones, expected top receiver Christian Watson, and top cornerback Jaire Alexander is in doubt, while the Lions’ stud left tackle Taylor Decker, starting running back David Montgomery, and expected starting cornerback Emmanuel Moseley all have uncertain statuses for this game as well.

That being said, I am strongly leaning towards taking the Lions in this one and possibly betting them, depending on the status of the aforementioned questionable players. While these two teams are even in terms of the amount and caliber of players who are questionable for this game, the Packers are still in a worse injury situation overall, with their top-2 offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, as well as stud every down linebacker De’Vondre Campbell already ruled out for this game, while the only key player the Lions will definitely be without is starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai. 

The Lions are also the significantly better team overall, entering the season with an expected win total that was 2 wins higher than the Packers (9.5 vs. 7.5), a gap that has been backed up by the play of these two teams thus far this season. The Lions hold a significant edge in DVOA (+21.2% vs. +15.0%), yards per play differential (+1.18 vs. +0.17), and first down rate differential (+0.34% vs. -1.24%), despite facing a more difficult schedule, with both teams facing the Falcons, but the Packers facing the Bears and Saints, while the Lions have faced the Chiefs and Seahawks.

Despite the Lions being the better team and likely having the injury edge, they are only favored by 1.5 points here in Green Bay. It will depend on who ultimately plays in this game, but my calculated line has the Lions as deserving of being at least field goal favorites. I am going to leave this as a low confidence pick for now because of the injury uncertainty, but depending on the final injury report there is a strong chance I upgrade this to a medium confidence pick and place a bet on the Lions and, unless all of the Packers questionable players play and the Lions’ don’t, the Lions should be the better option for pick ‘em purposes.

Update: Aaron Jones and Christian Watson will play for the Packers, but Jaire Alexander is out, while David Montgomery and Taylor Decker will play for the Lions. This line has moved up to -2, but I think the Lions are bettable at that number, as my calculated line has Detroit favored by 4.

Detroit Lions 27 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2

Confidence: Medium