New York Giants (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

The Giants’ season got off to a disastrous start when they were blown out at home by the Cowboys 40-0 in week 1 and then subsequently went down 20-0 at halftime on the road in week 2 against a Cardinals team that is one of the worst in the league. However, the Giants rebounded in the second half of that Cardinals game to come from behind and win, averting a total catastrophe and salvaging a 1-1 record out of the first two weeks of the season.

Things don’t get easier for the Giants this week though, as they have to go on the road on a short week and face a 49ers team that is one of the best in the league. Teams typically struggle on the road on a short week against a superior non-divisional opponent, going 28-46 ATS and it’s even worse when a team is underdogs of more than a touchdown (6-17 ATS), which the Giants are here. The Giants could also be extra tired after staging their comeback last week, as underdogs are just 8-15 ATS the week after coming back from a deficit of 13+ after the third quarter and winning in a game in which they were favored.

This line is high at 10.5, but the 49ers enter this game 2nd in DVOA, while the Giants rank 32nd. That’s only a two game sample size, but the 49ers entered the season as a vastly superior team to the Giants, expected by the oddsmakers to win three more games than the Giants (10.5 vs. 7.5), and based on what we’ve seen thus far this season, that gap has only widened. Dating back to last season, 11 of the 49ers’ 15 wins have come by 11 points or more, so they’re clearly capable of blowing inferior teams out, especially at home, where 7 of those 11 blowout wins have come.

The 49ers also have a massive edge health wise, almost 20 points better in SIC score (92.2 vs. 73.7), as they are close to full strength, while the Giants are missing top offensive weapon Saquon Barkley and top offensive lineman Andrew Thomas, among other smaller injury absences. I don’t love that this line has gone above 10, jumping to 10.5 from 9.5 on the early line last week, but the Giants’ near loss to the Cardinals last week without Andrew Thomas and the subsequent loss of Saquon Barkley late in last week’s game justifies that line movement. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet, but everything suggests this will be a very lopsided affair, so I don’t mind laying the 10.5 points.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -10.5

Confidence: Medium