-
Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 16
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
-
Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) The 49ers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against Atlanta next on their schedule. Teams are 84-54 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 5 or more on the road before being…
-
Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8) At first glance, this line is exactly where it should be. The Seahawks move the chains at a 74.30% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 5.62% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, move the…
-
Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8) So far this season, I’m 12-1 ATS picking Saints game and I would be 12-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I…
-
Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9) The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Raiders are one of the worst, by any measure. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs rank 5th, while the Raiders rank 31st. In terms of rate of movement the…
-
Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) The Bengals have been dominant at home this season, winning all 6 of their games by an average of 16.00 points per game, including victories over the Colts, Patriots, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. They’ve also covered in all 6 of those…
-
Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6) The Lions lost last week in Philadelphia by the score of 34-20. The Eagles won that game on the strength of a 28-6 margin in the 4th quarter, after the Lions led by 14-6 going into the 4th quarter. However, now the Lions…
-
Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6) Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out for this one, so the line has been posted. The Packers have opened as 7 point underdogs. You check see all of the NFL lines at https://www.bwin.com/. However, even though Aaron Rodgers is out, that doesn’t mean…
-
Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-9) Ordinarily, teams dominate after a Monday Night Football blowout win, carrying over the momentum from a big win into next week’s game. Since 2002, teams are 32-13 ATS off of a Monday Night Football win over 21 or more. The Bears only beat…
-
Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1) Earlier this season, a stat was floated around that the Eagles hadn’t won in 10 straight home games. They ended their home struggles over their recent three game home stand, by winning all 3, but what got lost in that was how good…
-
Subscribe
Subscribed
Have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
