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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (12-3) The Seahawks need this win to clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage through to the Super Bowl. The Seahawks lost at home last week, for the first time since week 16 of the 2011 and the first time in Russell…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at New Orleans Saints (10-5) This game is very important to the Saints. If they lose here, they can be knocked out of the playoffs entirely if the Cardinals lose to the 49ers. Also, if the Panthers somehow lose earlier in the day, the Saints can…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) This game is very important for both teams. For Baltimore, a win and a loss by either San Diego or Miami puts them in the playoffs, but if they lose they need San Diego, Miami, and Pittsburgh to all lose. For Cincinnati, they…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 17
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick Results
Week 16 Straight Up: 12-4 Against the Spread: 8-8 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 2-4 Low Confidence: 2-2 No Confidence: 2-2 Upset Picks: 3-1 2013 Straight Up: 161-78-1 (.674) Against the Spread: 139-94-7 (.597) Pick of the Week: 9-6-1 High Confidence: 22-8 Medium Confidence: 31-23…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Head Coaching Candidates
Jay Gruden Cincinnati OC, Age 47 in 2014 Gruden has done a fantastic job in Cincinnati getting the most out of Andy Dalton as their offensive coordinator, since taking over in 2011. He’s drawn the respect of the rest of the league and has been considered for head coaching jobs…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (7-6-1) Aaron Rodgers is out for this one and, given that, it’s a little absurd that the Packers are favorites here at home. The Steelers are better than their 6-8 record. They’ve just been killed by a 1-5 record in games decided by…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) The Eagles are a better team than the Bears. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they’re about equal. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.73% rate, as opposed to 73.78% for their opponents, a differential of -0.05% that…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (4-10) at New York Jets (6-8) Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12) This is another one I’m completely split on. On one hand, the Broncos have no distractions upcoming that would distract them from be able to dominate a lesser opponent here and cover the spread. After this one, they just have to go to…
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