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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (0-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) The Pittsburgh Steelers were a 12-4 team a year ago, but many of their wins came by small margins against weak opponents, with a dominant defense masking significant flaws on offense. As their schedule got harder, the Steelers, who won their first 11…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-7) The Dolphins won last week, but their 8-point victory over the terrible Texans does nothing to change my opinion of the Dolphins as one of the worst teams in the league. Their only other win this season came back in week one, by…
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Continue reading →: 2021 Week 9 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week PHI +2 vs. LAC High Confidence Picks DAL -9.5 vs. DEN CLE +2.5 @ CIN Medium Confidence Picks SF -2 vs. ARZ ATL +6 @ NO Low Confidence Picks HOU +5.5 @ MIA NE -4 @ CAR BAL -6 vs. MIN JAX +15 vs. BUF KC…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (7-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4) Earlier this week, I was expecting to make a big play on the Chiefs in this one, when they opened with an even line. The Packers are 7-1, while the Chiefs are just 4-4, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (6-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-1) A week ago, this line favored the Rams by 4.5 on the early line, but the line has since shifted to 7.5 points. Normally I like to fade significant week to week line movements like this, as they tend to be an…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) The Steelers have moved up above .500, but they’re still an underwhelming team overall. Their total margin of victory across their four wins is still less than their total margin of defeat across their three losses, giving them a point differential of -10.…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) at New York Giants (2-6) This game is one of the toughest calls of the week. On one hand, the Raiders are in a good spot coming off of a bye week, as road favorites of more than a field goal cover at a 63.5% rate…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-7) at Miami Dolphins (1-7) The Texans’ season got off to a good start, as they won their week one game by multiple scores, but they have yet to win a game since. It also hasn’t been close most of the game, as they have been outscored 220-82…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (4-4) at Dallas Cowboys (7-1) The Broncos are 4-4, but they’ve had one of the easiest schedules in the league and have yet to beat a team that has more than two wins on the season. On top of that, three of those four wins were the first…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-2) The Saints got a huge home win over the Buccaneers last week, but they still had a significant loss in that game, as quarterback Jameis Winston is now out for the season after tearing his ACL, leaving veteran journeyman backup Trevor Siemian…
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