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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: 2020 Week 10 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at New England Patriots (3-5) The Patriots have gone just 3-5 in their first season without Tom Brady, at one point losing four straight games for the first time since 2002 and only snapping that losing streak by squeaking out a field goal win over the Jets…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2020 Week 10 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (6-2) The Saints started the season 1-2, but I was never that concerned. The Saints typically start slow, going 4-17-1 ATS in week 1 and 2 since 2010, as opposed to 87-57-2 ATS in weeks 3-17, and, while it didn’t seem likely…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2020 Week 10 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (6-2) This one is a tough call. The Colts have been better overall this season, ranking 8th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +1.75%, while the Titans rank 21st at -0.54%, but the Titans have been a much better offensive team than…
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Continue reading →: 2020 Week 9 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week MIN -3.5 vs. DET High Confidence Picks ARZ -4.5 vs. MIA Medium Confidence Picks GB -6.5 @ SF KC -10 vs. CAR IND PK vs. BAL NO +4.5 @ TB NYG +3 @ WAS HOU -6.5 @ JAX Low Confidence Picks NE -9.5 @ NYJ TEN…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (2-5) at New York Jets (0-8) With the Patriots falling to 2-5 in their first season without Tom Brady, there has been a lot of talk that the Patriots made a mistake not trying harder to bring Brady back. However, I don’t know how this would have…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5) This line was finally reposted at Minnesota -3.5, after confirmation that Lions quarterback Matt Stafford would be able to play despite being placed in the COVID contact tracing protocol earlier in the week. Earlier in the week I liked the Vikings at that…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Washington Football Team: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
New York Giants (1-7) at Washington Football Team (2-5) With Washington still somehow unable to figure out how to get a real name, it seems that the Washington Football Team moniker is here to stay, with reports recently that they are keeping the name through 2021, so I will have…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6) Everyone knows the Falcons have blown three games where they had a very high win probability late and that the Falcons would be 5-3 if they hadn’t blown those leads, but the Broncos could also have a better record if quarterback Drew Lock…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (4-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-5) The Raiders have a couple more wins than the Chargers, but the Chargers have the edge in most of the key season-long stats, including point differential (-6 vs. -16), DVOA (-4.1% vs. -12.3%) and first down rate differential (+1.92% vs. -1.58%).…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-5) Last week, I picked the Cowboys as a low confidence pick as 11-point underdogs. My reasoning was that teams that fail to cover in their first 7 games tend to be solid bets going forward (62% all-time) because books know they can over-inflate…
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