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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (5-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) This line suggests that these two teams are even and that the Buccaneers have a standard homefield advantage, as the Buccaneers are favored by a field goal at home. I don’t agree with either of those. The Buccaneers are just 18-36 ATS…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (12-2) at New York Jets (9-5) The Patriots are favored by 3.5 points in New York against the Jets this week. That doesn’t make sense, as it suggests the Patriots would be about 9 or 9.5 point favorites if this game were played in New England. The…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
New York Giants (6-8) at Minnesota Vikings (9-5) The Giants have lost wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. for this critical late season game, as he was suspended for a game for a number of personal fouls in last week’s loss to the Carolina Panthers, including a headbutt of cornerback Josh…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) This line suggests these two teams are even, but I disagree. Not only do the Redskins have a better record, but they also rank higher in rate of moving the chains differential, ranking 15th, while the Eagles come in at 24th. On top…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (4-10) at Oakland Raiders (6-8) The Chargers are just 4-10, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-6 record in games decided by…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (3-10) at New England Patriots (11-2) The Titans rank just 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have been pretty solid offensively, outside of the 2 games that talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota missed with injury. In those 2 games, they moved the chains at a…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (11-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, despite having a couple losses. In those 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (4-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-8) The Saints were favored by just 1.5 points over the Lions on the early line last week, but have since jumped to 3 point favorites, following their upset victory in Tampa Bay and the Lions’ upset loss in St. Louis. That’s a…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7) The Colts lost 51-16 in Jacksonville last week, but the good news is that teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8) This line was even a week ago on the early line, but the Jaguars have since become field goal favorites, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I love fading significant line…
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