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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (5-8) at San Diego Chargers (3-10) The Chargers are just 3-10, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-6 record in games decided by…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (3-10) at Seattle Seahawks (8-5) The Seahawks’ home dominance is well documented. Since 2007, they are 54-23 at home (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.77 points per game), as opposed to 31-45 on the road (getting outscored by an average of 1.72 points per game). However, their…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Oakland Raiders (6-7) The public is all over the Packers this week, as 3.5 point favorites in Oakland. That’s not a surprise. Betting that the Packers will beat the Raiders by 4 or more points must seem like free money to a lot of people.…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (4-9) at New York Jets (8-5) The Jets are favored by 4 points here in Dallas, but I think that’s too low. The Jets are sneakily one of the better teams in the NFL. They rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential and, now with center…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (5-8) Ordinarily, non-divisional home favorites do really well on Thursday nights, going 26-13 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. It’s tough for a team to face an unfamiliar and superior opponent on a short week on the road. The Rams are non-divisional…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (6-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) I’m a little confused why this is an even line. I think the Eagles should be favored by at least a field goal. These two teams are very even in rate of moving the chains differential (Buffalo is 20th and Philadelphia is 21st)…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2) The Broncos lost at home 29-13 to the Chiefs week 10, but it turns out that bottoming out was exactly what the Broncos needed. Peyton Manning played so poorly in that game, completing 5 of 20 passes for 35 yards and 4 interceptions,…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-4) When these two teams met in the playoffs last year, the Cowboys were 8-0 on the road and the Packers were 8-0 at home, the first time in NFL history a team that hadn’t lost at home hosted a playoff game against…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (10-2) at Houston Texans (6-6) The Patriots are 33-17 ATS off of a loss when Tom Brady starts and they haven’t lost 3 straight since 2003. The problem is that the public is all over New England. They seem to rightfully see New England’s loss last week…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick
New York Giants (5-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-8) The Giants host the Panthers next week (against whom they’ll be 3.5 point home underdogs), so they could easily be caught looking forward to that game this week, when they face the Dolphins in Miami, a game in which they’re favored by…
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