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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4) The 49ers lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the season last week and are now starting 7th round rookie Brock Purdy, set to make the first start of his career this week, but, despite that, this line has only dropped from favoring…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (7-5) The Titans are 7-5, but their wins haven’t been that impressive. Their only win against a team that is .500 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-5-1 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1) The Giants are 7-4-1, but that is a misleading record, as all seven wins have come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 5-8. Meanwhile, all four of their losses have come by 7 points…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6) The Chargers are 6-6, but their six wins have all been close and have come by a combined 24 points, while their six losses have come by a combined 61 points, leading to a point differential of -37 that ranks just 24th…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) at Los Angeles Rams (3-9) The Raiders have won three straight after a 2-7 start, but that’s not as big of a shift as you might think, as six of their seven losses came up one score, while their three recent wins have also been one…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 13 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week BAL -9.5 vs. DEN High Confidence Picks PHI -4.5 vs. TEN Medium Confidence Picks SEA -7 @ LAR LV -1 vs. LAC NO +3.5 @ TB Low Confidence Picks MIA +4 @ SF BUF -3.5 @ NE MIN -3 vs. NYJ CLE -7 @ HOU KC…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) The Saints are just 4-8, but they’ve played better than their record suggests, ranking 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency. Their biggest problem has been the turnover margin, with a league worst -14, but turnover margins tend to be highly inconsistent on…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) A week ago on the early line, the Chiefs were favored by a field goal in Cincinnati, but this line has since fallen down to two, a significant shift, given that one in six games are decided by three points exactly. That…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7) This is another one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. My calculated line has the Lions just slightly favored to win this game, but it also has the Jaguars covering this 1-point spread, which is how close this one is for…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3) This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. This line is at Dallas -10.5, which is right where my calculated line has it, favoring the Colts just slightly against the spread at this number, and there also aren’t any situational…
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