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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-7) at Carolina Panthers (3-8) These two teams are pretty similar. Both have among the worst offenses in the league, with the Panthers ranking 31st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and the Broncos ranking 32nd. The Broncos’ offense is better in my roster rankings, as they have a…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) The Ravens have three losses, but all came by four points or fewer and all came after blowing 4th quarter leads, with the Ravens leading the league in percentage of time leading per game. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 7th…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-7) Typically significant road favorites cover at a high rate after a bye week, covering the spread 63.0% of the time as favorites of more than a field goal. At first glance, that would seem to apply to this game, with the Buccaneers…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3) The Titans have won seven of their last eight games to go to 7-3 on the season, but their wins haven’t been that impressive, as their only win against a team that isn’t sub .500 came against the 6-5 Commanders and none of…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) The Packers are 4-7, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, even with an MVP season from Aaron…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at New York Jets: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (3-8) at New York Jets (6-4) The Jets’ offense was embarrassed last week in New England, averaging 2.10 yards per play and converting first downs at a 11.76% rate in a 10-3 loss, but they also had a dominant performance on defense once again and, overall, they rank…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-3) A week ago on the early line, the Texans were 9.5-point underdogs on the early line, but this line has since ballooned to 14. The Dolphins were on bye last week and didn’t play, so this line movement is purely the result of…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at Washington Commanders (6-5) A week ago on the early line, the Commanders were favored by three points at home over the Falcons, but this line has since shifted to four, a significant shift, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7) This game is a tough call. I think both of these teams are overrated and not as good as their record. The Chargers are 5-5, but their five wins have come by a combined 23 points, while their five losses have come…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6) A week ago on the early line, the Bills were 10-point favorites for this game in Detroit, but the line has since moved to 9.5. That’s not a huge line movement, but 10 is a key number, with about 6% of games decided…
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