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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (2-0) at Houston Texans (1-1) Both of these teams are unappealing to bet this week. The Panthers are 2-0, but they beat a terrible Jets team by 5 and then got a Saints team that was predictably flat after an emotional week one victory and that was also…
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Continue reading →: 2021 Week 2 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NE -6 @ NYJ High Confidence Picks GB -11.5 vs. DET Medium Confidence Picks ARZ -3.5 vs. MIN IND +3.5 vs. LAR TB -12.5 vs. ATL CIN +2.5 @ CHI Low Confidence Picks NYG +3.5 @ WAS LV +6.5 @ PIT JAX +6 vs. DEN DAL…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (0-1) The Packers had the most disappointing week one performance in the league, losing 38-3 as 3.5-point favorites against the Saints. The Packers aren’t as good as a year ago, especially with key players like David Bakhtiari and Za’Darius Smith out of the…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-0) It was tough to know what to make of the Bills/Steelers game, but my takeaway was more than the Bills were worse than expected more than the Steelers were better than expected. Everything went perfectly for the Bills’ offense last season and even…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) This line moved significantly from favoring the Broncos by 3 on the early line last week to now by 6 this week, as a result of the Jaguars losing convincingly in Houston and the Broncos winning convincingly in New York against the Giants.…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) The Eagles are a tough team to project right now. Their supporting cast isn’t bad, as their offensive line is much healthier than a year ago, their receiving corps are better, and their secondary has added key players like Anthony Harris and…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) Both of these teams pulled upset wins in week one, the Steelers winning as 6.5-point underdogs in Buffalo and the Raiders winning as 4-point home underdogs against the Ravens. The Raiders’ upset was less surprising, as they had the clear emotional edge…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) I was expecting the Cowboys to be a lot better this season because of improved health, namely the return of quarterback Dak Prescott and his top-3 offensive linemen from injuries that cost them significant portions of last season, but the Cowboys have…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0) Probably the most surprising week one result was the Saints not only upsetting the Packers as 3.5-point underdogs, but blowing them out by a final score of 38-3, the most lopsided result of the week. Unsurprisingly, that led to the biggest line…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1) The Chiefs won last week, but they had a significantly lower first down rate (42.11% vs. 34.43%) and yards per play (8.16 vs. 6.51) than their opponent, winning primarily because of the turnover margin, which is a significantly less predictive metric. However,…
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