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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1) The Browns lost week one, but they were probably the most impressive team to lose a game, as they went on the road and outperformed the Chiefs in more predictive metrics like first down rate (42.11% vs. 34.43%) and yards per play (8.16…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) The Buccaneers nearly lost at home to the Cowboys week one, but they also won that game despite losing the turnover margin by three, which only happens about 11.3% of the time. Turnover margin is one of the least predictable metrics week-to-week…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0) This game has one of the biggest week-to-week line movements of any game this week, with the Seahawks moving from 3.5-point favorites on the early line last week to 6.5-point favorites this week. Normally, I like to fade significant line movements like that…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1) The Colts weren’t much of a match for the Seahawks week one, but the Seahawks are one of the most complete teams in the league and the Colts were at far less than full health. I was hoping they would be healthier…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-0) This is one of several games this week where I would have liked the early line a lot more, as the Cardinals were favored by a field goal a week ago and now have moved to 3.5-point favorites, a big deal given that…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1) The Patriots were my Pick of the Week last week and lost by 1 point as 3-point favorites, but the peripheral numbers show that the Patriots were the more efficient team, as they had the higher first down rate (33.33% vs.…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1) I thought the Bengals could be a little bit of an underrated team this season if Joe Burrow could return to form after his ACL tear because the rest of this team is noticeably improved over the past two years. The Bengals got…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
New York Giants (0-1) at Washington Football Team (0-1) Washington came into the season with some significant potential. They returned almost everyone from one of the best defenses in the league a year ago and made noticeable upgrades in free agency at their two biggest positions of weakness, signing quarterback…
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Continue reading →: 2021 Week 1 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NE -3 vs. MIA High Confidence Picks BUF -6.5 vs. PIT WAS -1 vs. LAC Medium Confidence Picks ARZ +3 @ TEN SF -8.5 @ DET NYG +3 vs. DEN Low Confidence Picks LV +4 vs. BAL HOU +3 vs. JAX IND +3 vs. SEA TB…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) The season hasn’t begun yet, but the Ravens have already lost significant talent to injury, most shockingly their top-3 running backs JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill, who are all out for the season. On top of that, cornerback Marcus Peters…
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