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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (10-4) at New York Jets (1-13) The Jets won their first game of the season last week, shocking the Rams as 17-point underdogs, but I wouldn’t expect anything close to a repeat of that this week. Even with that win, the Jets still rank dead last in schedule…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3) These two teams are very similar. Both teams are worse than their record suggests in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, with the Titans ranking 15th at +0.57% and the Packers ranking 16th at +0.37%, but both teams have great offenses and…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) Several weeks ago, I said that the rule of thumb with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs was to pick them unless there’s a good reason not to, citing their 28-15-2 ATS record in games in which Mahomes has started in his career,…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (5-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) The Chargers are just 5-9, but most of their losses have been close, with 7 of their 9 wins coming by one score or less, including blown leads against high level teams like the Saints, Buccaneers, and Chiefs. In terms of schedule…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) at Detroit Lions (5-9) The Buccaneers’ 9-5 record doesn’t jump off the page, but they’ve been one of the better teams in the league this season. They’ve faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, with their five losses coming against opponents who are a…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7) Both of these teams have not been as good as their record suggests. The Raiders are 7-7, but 6 of their 7 wins have come by 10 points or fewer, with the exception being a game in which the Raiders won the…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (8-6) The 49ers lost last week in upset fashion to the Cowboys and that seems to have caused the public and the oddsmakers to sour on them, with this line shifting from Arizona -3 on the early line last week to Arizona -5…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (10-4) One interesting metric that I look at is called variance, which measures the variance in a team’s performance from week-to-week. The Saints have been among the league leaders in this metric this year, ranking 4th, meaning they’ve been one of the least…
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Continue reading →: 2020 NFL Pick Results (Through Week 15)
2020 Pick of the Week: 9-5-1 (63.33%) High Confidence Picks: 14-11 (56.00%) Medium Confidence Picks: 34-32-1 (51.49%) Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 57-48-2 (54.21%) Low Confidence Picks: 39-33 (54.17%) No Confidence Picks: 14-29-2 (33.33%) Total Against the Spread: 110-110-4 (50.00%) Moneyline Upset Picks: 16-17 (48.48%) All-Time (Since 2013) Total…
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Continue reading →: 2020 Week 15 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NO +3 vs. KC High Confidence Picks JAX +13 @ BAL Medium Confidence Picks LAC +3.5 @ LV CIN +14 vs. PIT CLE -6 @ NYG DAL +3.5 vs. SF NE +1 @ MIA Low Confidence Picks BUF -5.5 @ DEN HOU +7.5 @ IND PHI…
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