Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)

One interesting metric that I look at is called variance, which measures the variance in a team’s performance from week-to-week. The Saints have been among the league leaders in this metric this year, ranking 4th, meaning they’ve been one of the least consistent teams in the league week-to-week. Sometimes this is due to sheer randomness and there isn’t a good explanation for it (like the 2nd ranked New England Patriots), but the most common reason for a team being inconsistent week-to-week is injuries, as having several key players in and out of the lineup over the course of a season will lead to significant week-to-week variance in performance.

That has been the case for the Saints, who have been among the most injury prone teams in the league this season, with key players on both sides of the ball both missing time, but also returning at various points in the season. The Saints are probably the best team in the league when everyone is at full strength (they were the pre-season #1 in my roster rankings), so, even with some key injuries, they’ve managed to go 10-4, but their play has slipped a little bit in recent weeks, resulting in back-to-back losses after a 10-2 start.

In some ways, both losses were understandable and slightly excusable. The first loss came in a game in which the Saints were facing an unfamiliar rookie quarterback with no pre-season tape on him and it came before a much bigger game against the Chiefs, so it was understandable they would be caught off guard, while the second loss came against a Chiefs team that is currently favored to win the Super Bowl, so losing to them isn’t a big deal, and both losses did come by only a field goal. However, both games required a borderline garbage time touchdown by the Saints to cut the deficit to 3 and the Saints lost the first down rate battle by a combined 4.38% in those games. 

Those two losses dropped the Saints to 6th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +2.57% and their injury situation is going in the wrong direction as well. Drew Brees has returned, but he might not be fully 100% and, at less than 100%, he isn’t a big upgrade over Taysom Hill, while the Saints have key players on both sides of the ball that are out that were not out when Hill was starting, most notably #1 wide receiver Michael Thomas and stud safety Marcus Williams. Overall, they’ve fallen to 9th in my roster rankings, which certainly isn’t bad, but they’re not the dominant team they looked to be a few weeks ago. 

With that in mind, I think we’re getting a little bit of line value with the visitors, with the Vikings coming in as 7-point underdogs. The Vikings are also a little underrated themselves. They aren’t nearly as good without top linebacker Eric Kendricks, who is once again out on defense, but their 7th ranked schedule adjusted first down rate differential (+2.31%) is significantly better than their record and is only slightly behind the Saints.

The metrics the Vikings have struggled in are metrics that are much less predictable week-to-week, like their net -15.55% fourth down conversion rate, their -19.19% net field goal conversion percentage, their 41.18% fumble recovery rate (28th in the NFL), their 2.99% interception rate (28th in the NFL) that is significantly higher than quarterback Kirk Cousins’ average from the past 5 seasons (1.90%), and their -4 return touchdown margin. I don’t want to bet on the Vikings without Kendricks, especially since the better team usually covers on a short week (favorites of 6+ cover at a 62.8% rate when both teams have had 4 days of rest or fewer), but the Vikings should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

New Orleans Saints 33 Minnesota Vikings 28

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Low

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