Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) at Detroit Lions (5-9)

The Buccaneers’ 9-5 record doesn’t jump off the page, but they’ve been one of the better teams in the league this season. They’ve faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, with their five losses coming against opponents who are a combined 49-21. On top of that, three of those losses came by 3 points or fewer, as opposed to just one win all season by 3 points or fewer. In total, the Buccaneers are 8-2 in games decided by more than a field goal. They rank 6th in point differential at +80, despite a tough schedule, and, in terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, they rank 2nd at +3.75%.

That’s more or less where the Buccaneers have ranked all season, but how they’ve been successful has shifted. Earlier in the year, they were very reliant on their defense, which ranked first in first down rate allowed over expected for most of the early part of the season, but dominant defenses tend to regress to the mean as the season goes on, especially as injuries pile up. 

The Buccaneers have not been an exception and they are missing key players like defensive tackle Vita Vea and cornerback Carlton Davis, but they have made up for their declining defense by improving on offense, as Tom Brady has gotten more comfort in this offense, with wide receivers Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown being integrated after missing significant time earlier this season due to injury and suspension respectively. 

In addition to ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, they are also the only team in the league to currently be in the top-10 on both sides of the ball (9th on offense and 4th on defense). They could continue regressing defensively going forward, but their offense should be able to continue compensating. My roster rankings also back them up as a top level team, as they rank 3rd currently, so I would expect them to continue to play at a high level going forward.

The Buccaneers’ schedule gets a lot easier this week in Detroit, as not only are the Lions 5-9, but they’re far from full strength. The Lions have been one of the most injury plagued teams in the league in recent weeks, missing key players on both sides of the ball, but, beyond that, they will also be without interim head coach Darrell Bevell due to COVID protocols, so they will essentially have a head coach by committee this week. 

The Lions rank 28th in my roster rankings and would plummet to dead last without quarterback Matt Stafford, who will play through rib and hand injuries, but is a candidate for an in-game setback that would cause him to be pulled for backup Chase Daniel, who would be a massive downgrade even from a less than 100% Stafford. This is only a low confidence pick on the Buccaneers for now because this line is pretty high at 9.5, but, depending on the status of several questionable players for the Lions (left tackle Taylor Decker, center Frank Ragnow, and linebacker Jamie Collins), I may end up placing a bet on Tampa Bay. The gap between these two teams is massive.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -9.5

Confidence: Low