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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5) This line was finally reposted at Minnesota -3.5, after confirmation that Lions quarterback Matt Stafford would be able to play despite being placed in the COVID contact tracing protocol earlier in the week. Earlier in the week I liked the Vikings at that…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Washington Football Team: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
New York Giants (1-7) at Washington Football Team (2-5) With Washington still somehow unable to figure out how to get a real name, it seems that the Washington Football Team moniker is here to stay, with reports recently that they are keeping the name through 2021, so I will have…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6) Everyone knows the Falcons have blown three games where they had a very high win probability late and that the Falcons would be 5-3 if they hadn’t blown those leads, but the Broncos could also have a better record if quarterback Drew Lock…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (4-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-5) The Raiders have a couple more wins than the Chargers, but the Chargers have the edge in most of the key season-long stats, including point differential (-6 vs. -16), DVOA (-4.1% vs. -12.3%) and first down rate differential (+1.92% vs. -1.58%).…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-5) Last week, I picked the Cowboys as a low confidence pick as 11-point underdogs. My reasoning was that teams that fail to cover in their first 7 games tend to be solid bets going forward (62% all-time) because books know they can over-inflate…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at Buffalo Bills (6-2) The Seahawks are 6-1, but four of their six wins have come by one score, including a pair that came down to fourth down stops against the Vikings and Patriots, and they rank just 12th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. However,…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) It may seem strange to see a 1-win Texans team favored by 6.5 points in this game in Jacksonville, but this is the 19th time in the past 30 seasons that a team with 1 win or fewer has been favored by 6.5…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-1) It might go without saying, but the Chiefs are on an incredible run right now. Dating back to last year’s bye, a 16-game stretch including the post-season, the Chiefs have just one loss and 12 wins by double digits and have a…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Indianapolis Colts (5-2) Typically I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and this line has shifted from Baltimore -4 on the early line last week to even this week, but this…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) When these two teams met back in week 1, the Saints won 34-23 in New Orleans, but the Buccaneers were significantly better in both yards per play (+0.7) and in first down rate (+8.11), losing primarily because of a -3 turnover…
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