Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Indianapolis Colts (5-2)

Typically I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and this line has shifted from Baltimore -4 on the early line last week to even this week, but this line movement is understandable. Not only did the Ravens lose the game at home last week to the Steelers, but they also lost arguably the top left tackle in the league in Ronnie Stanley and, to add to that, they had a COVID outbreak this week that disrupted their practices and will cost them at least top cornerback Marlon Humphrey, as well as potentially others. Given that, four points of line movement is pretty reasonable.

In fact, I don’t think the line movement went far enough. I had this game circled last week as a likely bet and we’re still getting line value at even, given all that the Ravens are missing. Even when healthy, the Ravens haven’t been nearly as good this season as they were last season, especially on offense. A big part of the reason why was the retirement of right guard Marshal Yanda, whose replacements have been a massive downgrade, and now without Stanley as well, the Ravens’ chances of bouncing back offensively take a serious hit. The Ravens have been strong on the defensive side of the ball this season, but Humphrey is a big absence and they could be without fellow defensive back Jimmy Smith as well.

The Colts, meanwhile, are relatively healthy, most notably getting dominant linebacker Darius Leonard back from a two and a half game absence last week, and have been slightly better on both sides of the ball thus far this season than the Ravens, even before these teams went in opposite directions injury wise. In my roster rankings, I have the Colts a couple points better, so they should be favored by at least a field goal here at home with limited fans. This isn’t a big play because the line has moved so much, but the Colts should be the clear favorite in this one, so this line is still mispriced.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis PK

Confidence: Medium