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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1) It’s not unusual for favored teams to struggle the week before Thursday Night Football, as favorites cover the spread only at about a 43.6% rate all-time in that situation. The Seahawks took care of business last week in Arizona, winning by 17…
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Continue reading →: 2019 Week 4 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week DET +7 vs. KC High Confidence Picks CLE +7 @ BAL OAK +7 @ IND Medium Confidence Picks ARZ +5.5 vs. SEA DAL -2.5 @ NO Low Confidence Picks TB +9 @ LAR NE -7 @ BUF CIN +3.5 @ PIT DEN -3 vs. JAX GB…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1) Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movement as it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play and the line in this game has shifted from Chicago -3 to Chicago -1 in the past week, a significant…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2) The Falcons have gotten off to a disappointing 1-2 start, winning a big home game against the Eagles week 2, but also losing on the road in Minnesota and Indianapolis. They’ve been better than their record has suggested though, ranking 11th in first…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) When the NFL scheduled this game on Monday Night Football, they probably thought they’d be getting a competitive early season matchup between two hated division rivals. Instead, they got the second Monday Night Football game in the past thirty years between a pair…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-0) This is a battle between a pair of 3-0 teams in the AFC East, but these two teams have had very different paths to 3-0. While the Patriots have dominated everyone they’ve faced, leading the league with a +21.55% first down rate…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Miami Dolphins (0-3) Typically, betting teams off of back-to-back blowout losses is a smart move, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. Since 2002, teams are 49-34 ATS off of back-to-back losses of 21+. That applies to the Dolphins this…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0) Probably the most surprising stat from this early season is the Buccaneers ranking 4th in first down rate allowed at 30.73%, after finishing 30th at 40.98% last season. The Buccaneers made changes on defense this off-season, but didn’t add any marquee…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (0-3) at New York Giants (1-2) I was hoping to be able to fade the Daniel Jones hype this week, as I felt the loss of running back Saquon Barkley was important to the Giants’ chances of winning going forward than Jones having a strong debut against an…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (2-1) The Cowboys are one of six teams currently 3-0. That’s where they should be, given that their schedule has had them face three of the worst teams in the league (Giants, Redskins, Dolphins) in the first three weeks of the season, but…
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