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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4) It takes a lot for me to go against Seattle at home, given how consistently good they’ve been there in recent years. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 45-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7) One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites of 3 or more are incredibly dominant off of a bye, going 40-12 ATS since 2002, including 21-4 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense. The Cowboys are…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2) The Patriots have scored 243 points in the last 6 weeks since that embarrassing loss in Kansas City, more than 21 teams have scored all season. Over those past 6 weeks, they are moving the chains at an 82.74% rate, as opposed…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) The Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the NFL, as the Raiders are winless at 0-10 and have looked really, really bad in the process, but they’ve still been horrible over the past two seasons. They have covered just 9 of their last…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5) I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The odds makers always make money in the long run and they always have a much better sense of how good each team actually is because it’s their job to set these lines. I…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6) The Saints have lost back-to-back home games, but that doesn’t completely erase what they’ve historically done at home in recent memory. Before these last two games, they had won 20 straight home games under Sean Payton and they are still 18-3-1 ATS…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (0-10) The Chiefs beat the Seahawks last week, but this line still doesn’t reflect how good they are. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.45% rate, as opposed to 71.38% for their opponents, a…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3) The Broncos suffered a shocking loss in St. Louis last Sunday, losing 22-7 as 10 point road favorites. However, that was a very fluky loss and the Broncos played a lot better than the final score suggested. The Broncos had more first downs…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 9-5 Straight Up: 8-6 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 0-1 Medium Confidence: 4-0 Low Confidence: 2-1 No Confidence: 2-3 Upset Picks: 1-1 On the season Against the Spread: 100-60-1 (.625) Straight Up: 106-54-1 (.663) Pick of the Week: 7-4 High Confidence: 7-7 Medium…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 12
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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