New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

New York Jets (2-10) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

Both of these teams will be road underdogs next week, but the Vikings will have a much tougher game. While the Jets will be in Tennessee, the Vikings have to go to Detroit. On top of that, the Vikings are in a bad spot because they are non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, a situation teams are 88-107 ATS in since 2002, but the Jets are in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs. Teams are 100-70 ATS in that spot since 2002.

The Vikings could also be in a bad spot as teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. The Vikings are 5-7 and need to finish 2-2 or better over their final 4 games. They are projected to be favored at home week 17 for Chicago in addition to being favored here so that trend might not necessarily be applicable, but it easily could be. Even if it isn’t, this line is still way too high at 6 points regardless.

The Vikings are even worse than their record suggests, as they rank 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.53% rate, as opposed to 74.11% for their opponents, a differential of -5.59%. The Jets aren’t good, but they actually rank higher, ranking 27th, moving the chains at a 68.19% rate, as opposed to 72.93% for their opponents, a differential of -4.74%, almost a whole percentage point better than Minnesota. The public saw the Vikings beat the Panthers 31-13 last week, but they ignore that they had 2 touchdowns on blocked punts, which is obviously not sustainable. The Vikings lost the chain game to the Panthers, as they have almost every week this season.

The public is on the Vikings and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense here. Regardless of what record the Vikings finish with, they aren’t deserving of being 6 point favorites over pretty much anyone (except Oakland and maybe Tennessee). Speaking of the Vikings being 6 point favorites this week and speaking of them having a tough game next week, favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more (the early line is 7) since 2002. Between that and the fact that the Vikings are overrated, I like the Jets a good amount here as long as the line is 6 or more.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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2 thoughts on “New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

  1. Being a Vikings fan I do agree with your “fading” comment as I separate my heart from my wallet. Last week part of the problem for the Panthers was the 7th coldest game in Vikings history and they looked like they didn’t want to be there, but this is the same Vikings defense that held Aaron Rodgers in check two weeks ago(or as much as he can be held in check).
    Vikings D looking good, weather for Sunday looking not good. Love the Vikings for the win, but agree and love the points as Sunday will be a perfect type of day for “ground and pound”.

    Vikings-17 Jets-13

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    • As a fellow Vikings fan, I want to agree with you, but there’s one small flaw in your analysis: Carolina is a southern team, and the Jets play in New Jersey. Outdoors. In the cold. I don’t think the weather will be as much of a factor as it was last week. On a neutral field, the Jets would be favored by a point. With home field advantage factored in, Minnesota ought to be 2 point favorites, not 6. I think they CAN cover, but I wouldn’t put any money on it. Your score looks about right. I hope we’re both wrong and Teddy and Zimmer have started putting things together for a dominating performance.

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