Tennessee Titans (2-9) at Houston Texans (5-6)
The Titans are in their 2nd of two road games which is typically a good spot for teams. Teams are 110-74 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-52 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.
However, I’m going to go the other way this week for two reasons. For one, the Texans are also in a good spot this week. Divisional home favorites are 115-84 ATS since 1989 before being divisional road favorites and the Texans have a trip to Jacksonville on deck. The early line for that game is 3.5. Teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 55-33 ATS before being 4+ point favorites. The Texans have no distractions on the horizon and should be completely focused to take care of business against an inferior opponent.
Speaking of the Titans being an inferior opponent, this line isn’t nearly high enough. The Texans aren’t a great team, but they are significantly better than the Titans, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.36% rate, as opposed to 73.24% for their opponents, a differential of -2.88%. The Titans, meanwhile, rank all the way down at 31st, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, as opposed to 76.10% for their opponents, a differential of -8.55%. We’re not getting any line value whatsoever with the Titans so I can’t take them this week. I’m not confident in Houston, but they should be the right side.
Houston Texans 23 Tennessee Titans 13
Pick against the spread: Houston -6.5