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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4) This line is way too low. The Ravens rank 5th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.84% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 4.55%. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 13
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 4-11 Straight Up: 10-5 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 1-4 Low Confidence: 1-3 No Confidence: 0-4 Upset Picks: 0-1 On the season Against the Spread: 104-71-1 (.594) Straight Up: 116-59-1 (.663) Pick of the Week: 8-4 High Confidence: 8-7 Medium…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6) This is probably the game I have a least feel for this week. On one hand, the Browns are a little bit better than the Falcons and this line at 3 suggests that these two teams are even with homefield advantage. The Browns…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4) I’m completely split on this. On one hand, the Rams could easily be overconfident and off of a fluky win over the Broncos last week. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6) The Bears have a much tougher game next week against the Lions in Detroit in just 4 days on Thanksgiving after this game against the Buccaneers. Favorites of 6 or more (which the Bears are here) are just 46-80 ATS before being…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4) The San Francisco 49ers are 9 point favorites here at home over the Washington Redskins, but I think that line is much too high. For one thing, San Francisco has actually played significantly worse than their record this season, as they rank…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6) The Packers have scored 108 points over the past two weeks, outscoring Chicago and Philadelphia by a combined total of 108-34 in back-to-back home games. However, now they have to go on the road, which has been a much bigger challenge for…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) Both of these teams will be divisional road underdogs next week, Philadelphia in Dallas and Tennessee in Houston, so both of them are in bad spots. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills in Detroit: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick
New York Jets (2-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-5) in Detroit In case you haven’t heard, this game is getting moved from Buffalo to Detroit as a result of the massive snowstorm that hit Buffalo this weekend. This line moved from 4.5 to 3 as a result, but I don’t think…
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