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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Miami Dolphins (7-5) The Dolphins are the better of these two teams, but they are only favored by 2.5 here at home (less than the average homefield advantage adjustment of 3). The Dolphins rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (7-5) at Oakland Raiders (1-11) The Raiders were absolutely destroyed in St. Louis last week, losing by the final score of 52-0, the biggest single game margin of the season. However, that actually puts them in a good spot to cover this week, as teams are 48-25…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Washington Redskins (3-9) This line shifted an entire field goal from last week to this week as the early line was PK and now the line is at 3 in favor of the Rams on the road. It’s easy to understand why that happened, considering…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) at New Orleans Saints (5-7) This line moved from 6.5 to 9.5 over the past week. Ordinarily, I hate going with huge line movements as they tend to be overreactions to one week (for example, Carolina getting blown out in Minnesota and New Orleans winning in Pittsburgh),…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (9-3) The Packers have been outstanding at home this season, moving the chains at an 80.51% rate, as opposed to 70.62% for their opponents, a differential of 9.89%. This home dominance is nothing new for them. Aaron Rodgers is 26-9-1 ATS at home…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-3) The wheels are starting to fall off for the Arizona Cardinals. They have lost 2 straight by double digits in Seattle and Atlanta and they have one offensive touchdown in their last 11 quarters. I’ve said all season that this team had…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7) This line is off. The Bears rank 18th, moving the chains at a 74.74% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.27% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Denver Broncos (9-3) Usually the public is all over favorites, particularly big favorites, because they don’t quite understand the value of the points they’re giving up. The public takes the favorite about 80% of the time or so and it’s a big part of the reason…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
New York Giants (3-9) at Tennessee Titans (2-10) The Giants typically cover the spread on the road in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. Since 2004, the Giants are 51-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.52 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents…
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