New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

New York Giants (3-9) at Tennessee Titans (2-10)

The Giants typically cover the spread on the road in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. Since 2004, the Giants are 51-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.52 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate. As a result, they are 55-38 ATS on the road over that time period, including 14-8 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, as they are here.

Giants are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 44-31 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 36-26 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game.

The Giants lost last week in Jacksonville on the road, but they lead early 21-0 and only lost because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and the return touchdown battle by 2. Despite that, they still only lost by 1 (as 2.5 point favorites). The Jaguars lost the chain game by a significant amount, moving them at a 67.86% rate, while the Giants moved them at a 71.43% rate. The Giants probably win that game 80-85% of the game and probably cover about 75% of the time.

Now they face an even easier opponent than Jacksonville as the Titans have been horrible this season and they do so as even smaller favorites (1 point) and in their 2nd straight road game. The Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 67.77% rate, as opposed to 76.72% for their opponents, a differential of -8.95%, while the Giants rank 21st, moving the chains at a 72.93% rate, as opposed to 74.27% for their opponents, a differential of -1.43%. I like the Giants’ chances of winning straight up here in Tennessee and I have confidence in them as mere 1 point favorites.

New York Giants 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -1

Confidence: Medium

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