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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks trade WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets
Trade for Seahawks: A lot of people are saying this move was a mistake for the Seahawks because trading him now means they’re going to end up paying him 18.3 million for 27 catches and 238 snaps played (including post-season). That’s about 678K per catch and about 64.6K per snap…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5) At first glance, it looks like we’re getting line value with the Redskins. Despite the Redskins’ 1-5 record, they are 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.50% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2) I still believe in the Saints. They’re 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a rate 81.82%, while their opponents are moving them at a 78.71%, a differential of 3.11% for the Saints. Why are they 2-3…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2) The Packers have been dominant at home over the past few seasons. Aaron Rodgers is 22-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 28-4 straight up, with an absurd +448 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.00 points per game.…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2) The Falcons got off to a good start, which included a 56-14 home victory over division rival Tampa Bay week 3, which pushed them to 2-1. However, they’ve lost 3 straight now and haven’t really been playing that well. They are moving the…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1) The Giants got blown out in Philadelphia last week, but that actually bodes well for their chances of covering the spread this week, as the Giants are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 106-69 ATS in that situation since…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
New York Jets (1-5) at New England Patriots (4-2) The Jets are as bad as I expected them to be this season and their record is as bad as they’ve been over the past two seasons. The Jets 8-8 record in 2013 was a farce as the Jets had a…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2) The Bengals played the Panthers to a tie last week and now they have to go on the road to Indianapolis. That puts them at a disadvantage rest wise, for obvious reasons. Ties are rare so there isn’t a big sample size, but…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (4-1) The Chargers are in about as bad as a spot as a team can be this week. They have a huge game 4 days after this in Denver, arguably the biggest game of their season. This game here is important because…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 7
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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