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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 6
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick Results
Against the Spread: 9-6 Straight Up: 12-3 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 1-1 Medium Confidence: 5-1 Low Confidence: 1-2 No Confidence: 2-1 Upset Picks: 1-1 Against the Spread: 48-27-1 Straight Up: 48-28 Pick of the Week: 3-2 High Confidence: 2-4 Medium Confidence: 19-5 Low Confidence: 12-8-1 No Confidence:…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) This is one of two games this week that I have no idea on. Unlike San Francisco/Kansas City, where I have strong arguments for each side, I don’t have a strong argument for either side here. There are no situational trends in…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2) The Panthers have lost their last two games by scores of 37-19 and 38-10, a combined margin of 46 points. As a result, the public seems very turned off of them, as they are heavily backing the underdog. However, I like the Panthers…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2) I think the Ravens are an underrated team. They are 3-1 and they’ve moved the chains at a higher rate than their opponent in all 4 games they’ve played. Even in their home loss to undefeated Cincinnati, they moved the chains at a…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1) The Cardinals have been anointed one of the top few teams in the NFL as a result of their 3-0 start. That’s very short-sighted. There always one team that start 3-0 or better and goes on to miss the playoffs. The Dolphins started…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
New York Jets (1-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-1) The Chargers are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Raiders in Oakland next week, the Jets have to deal with the Broncos at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3) Tennessee has been demolished in back to back weeks, losing by final scores of 33-7 and 41-17, but I have reason to think that this week will be different. For one, Jake Locker is coming back from injury. Locker isn’t great or anything,…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (2-2) One of the most powerful trends says that big road favorites dominate off a bye. Road favorites of 3 or more are 39-12 ATS off a bye since 2002, which is an incredibly high rate. The Seahawks should be completely focused here as…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1) The Lions are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Vikings in Minnesota next week, the Bills have to deal with the Patriots at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites…
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